Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Geruso, Michael; Spears, Dean; Talesara, Ishaana
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Indian Statistical Institute; Indian Statistical Institute Delhi; IZA Institute Labor Economics
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20200210
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 327-357
• 关键词: electoral-college; likelihood; verdict

摘要

Inversions-in which the popular vote winner loses the election-have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within 1 point (one-eighth of presidential elections), about 40 percent will be inversions in expectation. We show this conditional probability is remarkably stable across historical periods-despite differences in which groups voted, which states existed, and which parties participated. Our findings imply that the United States has experienced so few inversions merely because there have been so few elections (and fewer close elections).