The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Stuart, Bryan A.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20180055
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 42-74
• 关键词: parental job loss; labor-market conditions; outcomes evidence; great recession; college; IMPACT; neighborhoods; constraints; school; unemployment

摘要

This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential census data, I estimate difference-in-difference regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0-10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that in aggregate, the 1980-1982 recession led to 1.3-2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66-$139 billion less earned income per year.