Why Have College Completion Rates Increased?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Denning, Jeffrey T.; Eide, Eric R.; Mumford, Kevin J.; Patterson, Richard W.; Warnick, Merrill
• 署名单位: Brigham Young University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Purdue University System; Purdue University; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20200525
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 1-29
• 关键词: higher-education; grade-inflation; financial incentives; performance; returns; grants; aid; QUALITY; TRENDS; IMPACT

摘要

We document that college completion rates have increased since the 1990s, after declining in the 1970s and 1980s. We find that most of the increase in graduation rates can be explained by grade inflation and that other factors, such as changing student characteristics and institutional resources, play little or no role. This is because GPA strongly predicts graduation, and GPAs have been rising since the 1990s. This finding holds in national survey data and in records from nine large public universities. We also find that at a public liberal arts college grades increased, holding performance on identical exams fixed.