Political Fragmentation and Government Stability: Evidence from Local Governments in Spain

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carozzi, Felipe; Cipullo, Davide; Repetto, Luca
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Uppsala University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20200128
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 23-50
• 关键词: regression discontinuity design; uncertainty; presidentialism; manipulation; DYNAMICS

摘要

This paper studies how political fragmentation affects government stability Using a regression discontinuity design, we show that each additional party with representation in the local parliament increases the probability that the incumbent government is unseated by 5 percentage points. The entry of an additional party affects stability by reducing the probability of a single-party majority and increasing the instability of governments when such a majority is not available. We interpret our results in light of a bargaining model of coalition formation featuring government instability.