Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Braakmann, Nils; Chevalier, Arnaud; Wilson, Tanya
• 署名单位: Newcastle University - UK; University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University of Glasgow
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7782
• DOI: 10.1257/app.20220585
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 144-160
• 关键词: regression tables; police

摘要

We provide first evidence that variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely held perception in the United Kingdom that South Asian households store gold jewelry at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households. Using a neighborhood-level panel on crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighborhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighborhoods in the same municipality. We conduct various tests on neighborhood and individual data to eliminate alternative explanations. ( JEL D12, D91, J15, K42, R23)