Vintage human capital, demographic trends, and endogenous growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Boucekkine, R; de la Croix, D; Licandro, O
• 署名单位: Universite Catholique Louvain; Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique - FNRS; Universite Catholique Louvain; European University Institute; European University Institute
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1006/jeth.2001.2854
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 340-375
• 关键词: Human capital; longevity; fertility; GROWTH; Schooling; retirement

摘要

We study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an OLG model with a realistic survival law. Individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to work and at which they retire. Endogenous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation-specific human capital. Favorable shifts in the survival probabilities induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on per-capita growth, The long-term relationship between fertility and per-capita growth is hump-shaped. Increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no-growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish. Solving numerically the equilibrium, demographic changes can have important medium-term effects even if long-term changes are very small. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).