Delay and information aggregation in stopping games with private information

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Murto, Pauli; Valimaki, Juuso
• 署名单位: Aalto University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0531
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2013.07.022
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 2404-2435
• 关键词: Information aggregation; Observational learning; dynamic games

摘要

We consider equilibrium timing decisions in a model with a large number of players and informational externalities. The players have private information about a common payoff parameter that determines the optimal time to invest. They learn from each other in real time by observing past investment decisions. We develop new methods of analysis for such large games, and we give a full characterization of symmetric equilibria. We show that the equilibrium statistical inferences are based on an exponential learning model. Although the beliefs converge to truth, learning takes place too late. Ex-ante welfare is strictly between that without observational learning and that with full information. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.