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作者：Collard, Fabrice; Habib, Michel; Rochet, Jean-Charles
作者单位：University of Bern; University of Zurich; University of Geneva; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：We develop a measure of maximum sustainable government debt for advanced economies. How much investors are willing to lend to a country's government depends on the country's expected primary surplus, the level and volatility of its rate of growth, and how much debt the government expects to be able to raise in the future for the purpose of servicing the debt it seeks to raise today. We provide a simple formula that computes a country's maximum sustainable debt (MSD) as a function of four easy-...
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作者：Sette, Enrico; Gobbi, Giorgio
摘要：This paper studies whether relationship lending mitigates the transmission of the Lehman default shock to the supply of credit in Italy. Exploiting the presence of multiple banking relationships, we control for banks' and firms' unobserved characteristics. Results show that the growth of credit itself is higher and its cost lower the shorter the distance between the bank and the firm, the longer the relationship, and the higher the share of credit held by the bank. Credit growth by relationshi...
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作者：Armenter, Roc; Koren, Miklos
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Central European University
摘要：How important are economies of scale in exporting? We argue that firm size cannot be the main determinant of export status if a model is to be consistent with the observed number and size of exporters. Instead, we need a lot of variation independent of firm size to reconcile the model with the data. We show that the augmented model also has markedly different implications regarding the margin of adjustment in the event of a trade liberalization: most of the adjustment is through the intensive ...
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作者：Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores; Perez-Quiros, Gabriel
作者单位：University of Zaragoza; Banco de Espana
摘要：Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex-ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot ...
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作者：Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Bank of England
摘要：This paper proposes an empirical model which can be used to estimate the international transmission of volatility shocks. Using this model we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the volatility of the shock to US real GDP leads to a decline in UK GDP of 1% relative to trend and a 0.7% increase in UK CPI relative to trend at the two-year horizon. Using a nonlinear open-economy DSGE model, we find that these empirical estimates are consistent with the response to a perturbation to ...
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作者：Vieider, Ferdinand M.; Lefebvre, Mathieu; Bouchouicha, Ranoua; Chmura, Thorsten; Hakimov, Rustamdjan; Krawczyk, Michal; Martinsson, Peter
作者单位：Institut Agro; Montpellier SupAgro; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Montpellier; University of Reading; University of Nottingham; University of Warsaw; University of Gothenburg
摘要：Attitudes towards risk and uncertainty have been indicated to be highly context-dependent, and to be sensitive to the measurement technique employed. We present data collected in controlled experiments with 2,939 subjects in 30 countries measuring risk and uncertainty attitudes through incentivized measures as well as survey questions. Our data show clearly that measures correlate not only within decision contexts or measurement methods, but also across contexts and methods. This points to the...
