THE FAILURE TO PREDICT THE GREAT RECESSIONA VIEW THROUGH THE ROLE OF CREDIT

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores; Perez-Quiros, Gabriel
• 署名单位: University of Zaragoza; Banco de Espana
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1111/jeea.12122
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 534-559
• 关键词: Financial crises; UNITED-STATES; booms

摘要

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest crisis. Reading the literature, it seems that this crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind not to see it coming. We approach this failure by looking at one of the key variables in this analysis, the evolution of credit. We compare the conclusions reached in the recent literature with those that could have been drawn from an ex-ante analysis. We show that the effect of credit on the business cycle cannot be exploited from a policymaker's point of view.