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作者：Cunha, Alexandre B.; Ornelas, Emanuel
作者单位：Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
摘要：We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political turnover in an economy where incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level due to rent-seeking motives. Parties alternate in office and cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each party curbs excessive spending when in office if it expects future governments to do the same. In contrast to the received literature, we find that strict limit...
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Mueller, Hannes
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：Countries with strong executive constraints have lower growth volatility but similar average growth to those with weak constraints. This paper argues that this may explain the relationship between executive constraints and inflows of foreign investment. It uses a novel dataset of Dutch sector-level investments between 1983 and 2012 to explore this issue. It formulates an economic model of investment and uses data on the mean and variance of productivity growth to explain the relationship betwe...
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作者：Agranov, Marina; Goeree, Jacob K.; Romero, Julian; Yariv, Leeat
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; University of Cologne; University of Cologne; University of Arizona
摘要：We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm-that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. We find that voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhib...
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作者：Bofondi, Marcello; Carpinelli, Luisa; Sette, Enrico
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We study the patterns of credit supply in Italy following the burst of the European sovereign debt crisis in 2011. Comparing lending to the same firm, we find that domestic banks reduced credit supply, increased interest rates on credit granted, and lowered the probability of accepting loan applications more than foreign banks, which were less affected by the sovereign crisis. The credit contraction is the consequence of a largely country-specific effect, not explained by heterogeneity in bank...
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作者：Aldashev, Gani; Jaimovich, Esteban; Verdier, Thierry
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles; University of Surrey; Paris School of Economics; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole des Ponts ParisTech; Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
摘要：We build an occupational-choice general-equilibrium model with for-profit firms, nonprofit organizations, and endogenous private warm-glow donations. Lack of monitoring on the use of funds implies that an increase of funds of the nonprofit sector (because of a higher income in the for-profit sector, a stronger preference for giving, or an inflow of foreign aid) worsens the motivational composition and performance of the nonprofit sector. We also analyze the conditions under which donors (throu...
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作者：Bentolila, Samuel; Jansen, Marcel; Jimenez, Gabriel
作者单位：Autonomous University of Madrid; Banco de Espana
摘要：We study whether the solvency problems of Spain's weakest banks in the Great Recession have caused employment losses outside the financial sector. Our analysis focuses on the set of banks that were bailed out by the Spanish authorities. Data from the credit register of the Bank of Spain indicate that these banks curtailed lending well in advance of their bailout. We show the existence of a credit supply shock, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity through firm fixed effects, and assess its ...
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作者：Card, David; Kluve, Jochen; Weber, Andrea
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Leibniz Association; RWI - Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin; Central European University
摘要：We summarize the estimates from over 200 recent studies of active labor market programs. We classify the estimates by type of program and participant group, and distinguish between three different post-program time horizons. Using regression models for the estimated program effect (for studies that model the probability of employment) and for the sign and significance of the estimated effect (for all the studies in our sample) we conclude that: (1) average impacts are close to zero in the shor...
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作者：Angeletos, George-Marios
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：The notion that business cycles are driven by fluctuations in aggregate demand is subtle. I first review some of the conceptual and empirical challenges faced when trying to accommodate this notion in micro-founded, general-equilibrium models. I next review my own research, which sheds new light on the observed business cycles by accommodating frictional coordination in the form of higher-order uncertainty. This makes room for forces akin to animal spirits even when the equilibrium is unique. ...
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作者：Feve, Patrick; Matheron, Julien; Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：In a neoclassical growth model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous, liquidity-constrained agents, the properties of the Laffer curve depend on whether debt or transfers are adjusted to balance the government budget constraint. The Laffer curve conditional on public debt is horizontally S-shaped. Two opposing forces explain this result. First, when government wealth increases, the fiscal burden declines, calling for lower tax rates. Second, because the interest rate decreases when governm...
