WHAT MAKES VOTERS TURN OUT: THE EFFECTS OF POLLS AND BELIEFS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Agranov, Marina; Goeree, Jacob K.; Romero, Julian; Yariv, Leeat
• 署名单位: California Institute of Technology; University of Cologne; University of Cologne; University of Arizona
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvx023
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 825-856
• 关键词: unanimous jury verdicts; information aggregation; ELECTIONS; welfare; bandwagon; PARADOX; RULE; BIAS

摘要

We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm-that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. We find that voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections.