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作者：Chen, Chia-Hui; Ishida, Junichiro; Suen, Wing
作者单位：Kyoto University; University of Osaka; University of Hong Kong
摘要：High-ability agents are more likely to achieve early success in risky experimentation, but learn faster that their project is not promising. These counteracting effects give rise to a signaling model with double-crossing property. This property tends to induce homogenization of quitting times between types, which in turn leads to some pooling in equilibrium. Low-ability agents may hold out to continue their project for the prospect of pooling with the high type, despite having a negative insta...
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作者：Masolo, Riccardo M.; Monti, Francesca
作者单位：Bank of England
摘要：Allowing for ambiguity about the behavior of the policymaker in a simple New-Keynesian model gives rise to wedges between long-run inflation expectations, trend inflation, and the inflation target. The degree of ambiguity we measure in Blue Chip survey data helps explain the dynamics of long-run inflation expectations and the inflation trend measured in the US data. Ambiguity also has implications for monetary policy. We show that it is optimal for policymakers to lean against the households' ...
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作者：Yousaf, Hasin
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：How do events that highlight a policy issue impact political preferences? In this paper, I analyze the impact of mass shootings on voter behavior. I show that, conditional on population, mass shootings are largely random events. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I find that mass shootings result in a 1.7 percentage point loss in Republican vote share in counties where they occur. Identification that relies on comparing successful and failed mass shootings yields similar results. Mass...
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作者：Miller, Steve; Chua, Kenn; Coggins, Jay; Mohtadi, Hamid
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Milwaukee
摘要：Climate change is likely to affect economies not only through warming, but also via an increase in prolonged extreme events like heat waves. However, the impacts of heat waves on economic output are not well captured by standard empirical approaches that ignore when hot days occur. Using a global dataset spanning 1979-2016, we show agricultural losses from past heat waves are up to an order of magnitude larger than suggested by standard approaches. Combining these estimates with a suite of cli...
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作者：de Ferra, Sergio
作者单位：Stockholm University
摘要：The experience of the European monetary union has been characterized by current account imbalances, widening gross external positions, and a severe sovereign debt crisis. I argue that institutional features of the European Economic and Monetary Union have contributed to all three. I show in a model that subsidies on holdings of assets issued within the union contribute to current account imbalances, to gross capital flows, and to the severity of the crisis. In a quantitative model with heterog...
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作者：Wang, Yikai
作者单位：University of Essex
摘要：China's rapid growth has been driven by policy reforms that significantly reduce market frictions. Policy reforms are determined by the government according to its own politico-economic considerations. This paper embeds these politico-economic considerations in a macro model of China to endogenously study government policies, market frictions, and economic growth. In the model, an elite runs the government and maximizes its own incomes, facing a political constraint: getting enough supporters....
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作者：Bourles, Renaud; Bramoulle, Yann; Perez-Richet, Eduardo
作者单位：Institut Universitaire de France; Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite
摘要：We provide the first analysis of the risk-sharing implications of altruism networks. Agents are embedded in a fixed network and care about each other. We explore whether altruistic transfers help smooth consumption and how this depends on the shape of the network. We find that altruism networks have a first-order impact on risk. Altruistic transfers generate efficient insurance when the network of perfect altruistic ties is strongly connected. We uncover two specific empirical implications of ...
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作者：Benzarti, Youssef; Harju, Jarkko
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Tampere University; VATT Institute for Economic Research
摘要：This paper uses quasi-experimental variation in payroll tax rates in Finland to investigate how firms use their input factors. We find that higher payroll tax rates lead to large employment responses and have no effects on employee-level earnings. As payroll taxes increase, firms substitute away from low-skilled, routine, and manual workers. Higher firm-level payroll tax rates also slightly decrease the total output of firms. Our results imply that firm-level production and input factor choice...
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作者：Setty, Ofer; Yedid-Levi, Yaniv
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; Reichman University
摘要：Labor market outcomes demonstrate considerable variation between and within skill groups. We construct a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and exogenous differences that matches these facts. We study the role of exogenous heterogeneity in choosing the optimal replacement rate and the maximum benefit for an unemployment insurance (UI) system. The optimal average replacement rate is 27%, compared to 0% in a model without exogenous heterogeneity. The relatively generous choice is ...
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作者：Goette, Lorenz; Tripodi, Egon
作者单位：University of Bonn; National University of Singapore; University of Essex
摘要：We propose a novel experiment that prevents social learning, thus allowing us to disentangle the underlying mechanisms of social influence. Subjects observe their peer's incentives, but not their behavior. We find evidence of conformity: When individuals believe that incentives make others contribute more, they also increase their contributions. Conformity is driven by individuals who feel socially close to their peer. However, when incentives are not expected to raise their peer's contributio...
