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作者：Hyytinen, Ari; Merilainen, Jaakko; Saarimaa, Tuukka; Toivanen, Otto; Tukiainen, Janne
作者单位：University of Jyvaskyla; Stockholm University; Aalto University; VATT Institute for Economic Research; KU Leuven; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non-experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistic...
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作者：Khan, Shakeeb; Nekipelov, Denis
作者单位：Boston College; University of Virginia
摘要：Strategic interaction parameters characterize the impact of actions of one economic agent on the payoff of another economic agent, and are of great interest in both theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, by considering econometric models involving simultaneous discrete systems of equations, we study how the information available to economic agents regarding other economic agents can influence whether or not these strategic information parameters can be inferred from the observed action...
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作者：Chan, Marc K.; Liu, Kai
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of Cambridge
摘要：We investigate the importance of various mechanisms by which child care policies can affect life-cycle patterns of employment and fertility among women, as well as long-run cognitive outcomes among children. A dynamic structural model of employment, fertility, and child care use is estimated using Norwegian administrative data. The estimation exploits a large-scale child care reform, which provided generous cash transfers to mothers who did not use formal child care facilities. We find that th...
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作者：Manski, Charles F.
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：This paper studies an identification problem that arises when clinicians seek to personalize patient care by predicting health outcomes conditional on observed patient covariates. Let y be an outcome of interest and let (x=k, w=j) be observed patient covariates. Suppose a clinician wants to choose a care option that maximizes a patient's expected utility conditional on the observed covariates. To accomplish this, the clinician needs to know the conditional probability distribution P(y|x=k, w=j...
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作者：Hsieh, Chih-Sheng; van Kippersluis, Hans
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：Social interactions are widely recognized to play an important role in smoking initiation among adolescents. In this paper, we hypothesize that emotionally stable, conscientious individuals are better able to resist peer pressure in the uptake of smoking. We exploit detailed friendship nominations in the US Add Health data, and extend the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model to deal with (i) endogenous peer selection, and (ii) unobserved contextual effects, in order to identify heterogeneity in ...
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作者：Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：A standard approach to estimating structural parameters in life-cycle models imposes sufficient assumptions on the data to identify the age profile of outcomes, then chooses model parameters so that the model's age profile matches this empirical age profile. I show that this approach is both incorrect and unnecessary: incorrect, because it generally produces inconsistent estimators of the structural parameters, and unnecessary, because consistent estimators can be obtained under weaker assumpt...
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作者：Gregory, Jesse
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops and estimates a model of college basketball teams' search for scoring opportunities, to provide a benchmark of the winning margin distributions that should arise if teams' only goal is to win. I estimate the model's structural parameters using first-half play-by-play data from college games and simulate the estimated model's predicted winning margin distributions. Teams' optimal state-dependent strategies generate patterns that match those previously cited as evidence of po...
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作者：Lale, Etienne
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：This paper provides new interpretations of the effects of rising economic turbulencean increase in the rate of skill depreciation upon job lossand its interaction with labor market institutions. We have three main results, based on a life-cycle model with labor market frictions and labor force participation decisions. First, rising economic turbulence during the 1970s and 1980s accounts for the decline in employment among older workers in the United States. Second, the interaction between turb...
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作者：Sanchez-Marcos, Virginia; Bethencourt, Carlos
作者单位：University of Canberra; Universidad de la Laguna
摘要：Spousal and survivor pensions are two important provisions of the US Social Security pension system. In this paper, we assess the impact of these benefits on the female employment rate in the context of a full life-cycle model in which households decide on female labor supply and savings. One important aspect of our model is that we allow for returns to labor market experience so that participation decisions affect not only current earnings and Social Security pension eligibility but also futu...
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作者：Bhattacharya, Debopam
作者单位：University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper develops nonparametric methods for welfare-analysis of economic changes in the common setting of multinomial choice. The results cover (a) simultaneous price-change of multiple alternatives, (b) introduction/elimination of an option, (c) changes in choice-characteristics, and (d) choice among nonexclusive alternatives. In these cases, Marshallian consumer surplus becomes path-dependent, but Hicksian welfare remains well-defined. We demonstrate that under completely unrestricted pref...
