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作者：Hu, Yingyao; Moffitt, Robert; Sasaki, Yuya
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Vanderbilt University
摘要：This paper presents identification and estimation results for a flexible state space model. Our modification of the canonical model allows the permanent component to follow a unit root process and the transitory component to follow a semiparametric model of a higher-order autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) process. Using panel data of observed earnings, we establish identification of the nonparametric joint distributions for each of the permanent and transitory components over time. We apply...
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作者：Bugni, Federico A.; Canay, Ivan A.; Shaikh, Azeem M.
作者单位：Duke University; Northwestern University; University of Chicago
摘要：This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with covariate-adaptive randomization when there are multiple treatments. More specifically, we study in this setting inference about the average effect of one or more treatments relative to other treatments or a control. As in Bugni, Canay, and Shaikh (2018), covariate-adaptive randomization refers to randomization schemes that first stratify according to baseline covariates and then assign treatment status so as to achieve balance ...
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作者：Chalak, Karim
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：This paper studies measuring various average effects of X on Y in general structural systems with unobserved confounders U, a potential instrument Z, and a proxy W for U. We do not require X or Z to be exogenous given the covariates or W to be a perfect one-to-one mapping of U. We study the identification of coefficients in linear structures as well as covariate-conditioned average nonparametric discrete and marginal effects (e.g., average treatment effect on the treated), and local and margin...
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作者：Callaway, Brantly; Li, Tong
作者单位：University of Mississippi; Vanderbilt University
摘要：This paper considers identification and estimation of the Quantile Treatment Effect on the Treated (QTT) under a straightforward distributional extension of the most commonly invoked Mean Difference in Differences Assumption used for identifying the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Identification of the QTT is more complicated than the ATT though because it depends on the unknown dependence (or copula) between the change in untreated potential outcomes and the initial level of un...
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作者：Vespa, Emanuel; Wilson, Alistair J.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：In dynamic environments where the strategic setting evolves across time, the specific rule governing the transitions can substantially alter the incentives agents face. This is particularly true when history-dependent strategies are used. In a laboratory study, we examine whether subjects respond to the transition rule and internalize its effects on continuation values. Our main comparison is between an endogenous transition where future states directly depend on current choices, and exogenous...
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作者：Oswald, Florian
摘要：This paper estimates a lifecycle model of consumption, housing choice, and migration in the presence of aggregate and regional shocks, using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The model delivers structural estimates of moving costs by ownership status, age, and family size that complement the previous literature. Using the model, I first show that migration elasticities vary substantially between renters and owners, and I estimate the consumption value of having the option ...
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作者：Mehta, Nirav
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Researchers commonly shrink raw quality measures based on statistical criteria. This paper studies when and how this transformation's statistical properties would confer economic benefits to a utility-maximizing decision-maker across common asymmetric information environments. I develop the results for an application measuring teacher quality. The presence of a systematic relationship between teacher quality and class size could cause the data transformation to do either worse or better than t...
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作者：Aguirregabiria, Victor; Mira, Pedro
作者单位：University of Toronto; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper deals with identification of discrete games of incomplete information when we allow for three types of unobservables: payoff-relevant variables, both players' private information and common knowledge, and nonpayoff-relevant variables that determine the selection between multiple equilibria. The specification of the payoff function and the distributions of the common knowledge unobservables is nonparametric with finite support (i.e., finite mixture model). We provide necessary and su...
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作者：Andrews, Donald W. K.; Guggenberger, Patrik
作者单位：Yale University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：This paper introduces a new identification- and singularity-robust conditional quasi-likelihood ratio (SR-CQLR) test and a new identification- and singularity-robust Anderson and Rubin (1949) (SR-AR) test for linear and nonlinear moment condition models. Both tests are very fast to compute. The paper shows that the tests have correct asymptotic size and are asymptotically similar (in a uniform sense) under very weak conditions. For example, in i.i.d. scenarios, all that is required is that the...
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作者：Peterman, William B.; Sommer, Kamila
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：A well-established result in the literature is that Social Security reduces steady state welfare in a standard life cycle model. However, less is known about the historical quantitative effects of the program on agents who were alive when the program was adopted. In a computational life cycle model that simulates the Great Depression and the enactment of Social Security, this paper quantifies the welfare effects of the program's enactment on the cohorts of agents who experienced it. In contras...
