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作者：Chalak, Karim
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：This paper studies measuring various average effects of X on Y in general structural systems with unobserved confounders U, a potential instrument Z, and a proxy W for U. We do not require X or Z to be exogenous given the covariates or W to be a perfect one-to-one mapping of U. We study the identification of coefficients in linear structures as well as covariate-conditioned average nonparametric discrete and marginal effects (e.g., average treatment effect on the treated), and local and margin...
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作者：Andrews, Donald W. K.; Marmer, Vadim; Yu, Zhengfei
作者单位：Yale University; University of British Columbia; University of Tsukuba
摘要：This paper considers tests and confidence sets (CSs) concerning the coefficient on the endogenous variable in the linear IV regression model with homoskedastic normal errors and one right-hand side endogenous variable. The paper derives a finite-sample lower bound function for the probability that a CS constructed using a two-sided invariant similar test has infinite length and shows numerically that the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) CS of Moreira (2003) is not always very close, say 0.00...
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作者：Gillingham, Kenneth; Tsvetanov, Tsvetan
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Kansas
摘要：This paper estimates demand for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems using a new approach to address three empirical challenges that often arise with count data: excess zeros, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogeneity of price. Our results imply a price elasticity of demand for solar PV systems of -0.65. Counterfactual policy simulations indicate that reducing state financial incentives in half would have led to 9% fewer new installations in Connecticut in 2014. Calculations suggest a s...
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作者：Callaway, Brantly; Li, Tong
作者单位：University of Mississippi; Vanderbilt University
摘要：This paper considers identification and estimation of the Quantile Treatment Effect on the Treated (QTT) under a straightforward distributional extension of the most commonly invoked Mean Difference in Differences Assumption used for identifying the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Identification of the QTT is more complicated than the ATT though because it depends on the unknown dependence (or copula) between the change in untreated potential outcomes and the initial level of un...
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作者：Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A.; Jinnai, Ryo
作者单位：Boston College; Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：We study the causes behind the shift in the level of U.S. GDP following the Great Recession. To this end, we propose a model featuring endogenous productivity a la Romer and a financial friction a la Kiyotaki-Moore. Adverse financial disturbances during the recession and the lack of strong tailwinds post-crisis resulted in a severe contraction and the downward shift in the economy's trend. Had financial conditions remained stable during the crisis, the economy would have grown at its average g...
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作者：Yamaguchi, Shintaro
作者单位：University of Tokyo
摘要：This paper constructs and estimates a dynamic discrete choice structural model of female employment and fertility decisions that incorporates job protection and cash benefits of parental leave legislation. The structural model is used for ex ante evaluation of policies that change the duration of job protection and/or the arrangement for cash benefits. Counterfactual simulations indicate that introducing an initial 1-year job protection policy increases maternal employment significantly, but e...
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作者：Johnson, Janna E.; Taylor, Evan J.
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Chicago
摘要：Rural-urban migration is an integral part of the structural transformation as societies move from a traditional agricultural economy to a modern economy. This process has many potential consequences for migrants. Our study focuses on the lifetime health effects of the large mid-20th century migration out of rural U.S. Northern Great Plains states, primarily to urban locations in the West and Midwest. An analysis of marginal treatment effects (MTEs) shows that (a) migrants are positively select...
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作者：Vespa, Emanuel; Wilson, Alistair J.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：In dynamic environments where the strategic setting evolves across time, the specific rule governing the transitions can substantially alter the incentives agents face. This is particularly true when history-dependent strategies are used. In a laboratory study, we examine whether subjects respond to the transition rule and internalize its effects on continuation values. Our main comparison is between an endogenous transition where future states directly depend on current choices, and exogenous...
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作者：Arcidiacono, Peter; Miller, Robert A.
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：The estimation of nonstationary dynamic discrete choice models typically requires making assumptions far beyond the length of the data. We extend the class of dynamic discrete choice models that require only a few-period-ahead conditional choice probabilities, and develop algorithms to calculate the finite dependence paths. We do this both in single agent and games settings, resulting in expressions for the value functions that allow for much weaker assumptions regarding the time horizon and t...
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作者：Evdokimov, Piotr; Garfagnini, Umberto
作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; University of Surrey
摘要：We design a laboratory experiment to study behavior in a multidivisional organization. The organization faces a trade-off between coordinating its decisions across the divisions and meeting division-specific needs that are known only to the division managers, who can communicate their private information through cheap talk. While the results show close to optimal communication, we also find systematic deviations from optimal behavior in how the communicated information is used. Specifically, s...
