Hurdles and steps: Estimating demand for solar photovoltaics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gillingham, Kenneth; Tsvetanov, Tsvetan
• 署名单位: Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Kansas
• 刊物名称: QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1759-7323
• DOI: 10.3982/QE919
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 275-310
• 关键词: Count data; hurdle model; fixed effects; instrumental variables; Poisson; energy policy

摘要

This paper estimates demand for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems using a new approach to address three empirical challenges that often arise with count data: excess zeros, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogeneity of price. Our results imply a price elasticity of demand for solar PV systems of -0.65. Counterfactual policy simulations indicate that reducing state financial incentives in half would have led to 9% fewer new installations in Connecticut in 2014. Calculations suggest a subsidy program cost of $364/tCO(2) assuming solar displaces natural gas. Our Poisson hurdle approach holds promise for modeling the demand for many new technologies.