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作者：Armstrong, Timothy B.; Kolesar, Michal
作者单位：Yale University; Princeton University
摘要：We consider inference in models defined by approximate moment conditions. We show that near-optimal confidence intervals (CIs) can be formed by taking a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, and adding and subtracting the standard error times a critical value that takes into account the potential bias from misspecification of the moment conditions. In order to optimize performance under potential misspecification, the weighting matrix for this GMM estimator takes into account this pot...
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作者：Farmer, Leland E.
作者单位：University of Virginia
摘要：Existing methods for estimating nonlinear dynamic models are either highly computationally costly or rely on local approximations which often fail adequately to capture the nonlinear features of interest. I develop a new method, the discretization filter, for approximating the likelihood of nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models. I establish that the associated maximum likelihood estimator is strongly consistent, asymptotically normal, and asymptotically efficient. Through simulations, I s...
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作者：Breitmoser, Yves
作者单位：University of Bielefeld
摘要：Experimenters make theoretically irrelevant decisions concerning user interfaces and ordering or labeling of options. Reanalyzing dictator games, I first show that such decisions may drastically affect comparative statics and cause results to appear contradictory across experiments. This obstructs model testing, preference analyses, and policy predictions. I then propose a simple model of choice incorporating both presentation effects and stochastic errors, and test the model by reanalyzing th...
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作者：Kato, Kengo; Sasaki, Yuya; Ura, Takuya
作者单位：Cornell University; Vanderbilt University; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Kotlarski's identity has been widely used in applied economic research based on repeated-measurement or panel models with latent variables. However, how to conduct inference for these models has been an open question for two decades. This paper addresses this open problem by constructing a novel confidence band for the density function of a latent variable in repeated measurement error model. The confidence band builds on our finding that we can rewrite Kotlarski's identity as a system of line...
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作者：Wellschmied, Felix
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：This paper studies the savings and employment effects of the asset means-test in US income support programs using a structural life-cycle model with productivity, disability, and unemployment risk. An asset means-test incentivizes low-income households to hold few financial assets making them vulnerable to predictable and unpredictable income changes. Moreover, it incentivizes relatively productive households that happen to have few financial assets to leave the labor force. However, it allows...
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作者：Tincani, Michela M.
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：I use administrative and survey data from Chile and a structural model to evaluate teacher policies in a market-based school system. The model accommodates equilibrium effects on parental sorting across school sectors (public or private), on the self-selection of individuals into teaching and across school sectors, and on teacher wages in private schools. I use the estimated model to simulate a reform that is planned to be implemented in Chile in 2023. Tying public school teacher wages to teac...
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作者：Sontuoso, Alessandro; Bhatia, Sudeep
作者单位：Chapman University System; Chapman University; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We study games with natural-language labels (i.e., strategic problems where options are denoted by words), for which we propose and test a measurable characterization of prominence. We assume that-ceteris paribus-players find particularly prominent those strategies that are denoted by words more frequently used in their everyday language. To operationalize this assumption, we suggest that the prominence of a strategy-label is correlated with its frequency of occurrence in large text corpora, s...
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作者：Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan; Drautzburg, Thorsten
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：We propose to add ranking restrictions on impulse-responses to sign restrictions to narrow the identified set in vector autoregressions (VARs). Ranking restrictions come from micro data on heterogeneous industries in VARs, bounds on elasticities, or restrictions on dynamics. Using both a fully Bayesian conditional uniform prior and prior-robust inference, we show that these restrictions help to identify productivity news shocks in the data. In the prior-robust paradigm, ranking restrictions, b...
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作者：Frandsen, Brigham R.; Lefgren, Lars J.
作者单位：Brigham Young University
摘要：We bound the distribution of treatment effects under plausible and testable assumptions on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, namely that potential outcomes are mutually stochastically increasing. We show how to test the empirical restrictions implied by those assumptions. The resulting bounds substantially sharpen bounds based on classical inequalities. We apply our method to estimate bounds on the distribution of effects of attending a Knowledge is Power Program (KIPP) charter sch...
