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作者：Crone, TM
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Since the 1950s the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has grouped the states into eight regions based primarily on cross-sectional similarities in their socioeconomic characteristics. This paper groups states into regions based on the similarities in their business cycles. We applied k-means cluster analysis to the cyclical components of Stock-Watson-type indices estimated at the state level to group the 48 contiguous states into eight regions with similar cycles. We then compare the cohesion ...
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作者：Miguel, E; Gertler, P; Levine, DI
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A new stylized fact in development economics is the importance of social capital in promoting economic growth. This paper examines the effect of social capital on industrialization in Indonesia. We analyze a rich set of social capital and social interaction measures, including voluntary associational activity and levels of trust and informal cooperation. The main finding is that initial social capital does not predict subsequent industrial development across 274 Indonesian districts. Though th...
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作者：O'Reilly, G; Whelan, K
摘要：This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behavior of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the euro-area inflation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are gener...
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作者：Ciccone, A; Peri, G
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We estimate the aggregate long-run elasticity of substitution between more educated workers and less educated workers (the slope of the inverse demand curve for more relative to less educated workers) at the U.S. state level. Our data come from the (five) 1950-1990 decennial censuses. Our empirical approach allows for state and time fixed effects and relies on time- and state-dependent child labor and compulsory school attendance laws as instruments for (endogenous) changes in the relative sup...
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作者：Tharakan, PKM; Van Beveren, I; Van Ourti, T
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC
摘要：Recent export experience of some large, emerging economies has raised important questions about the trade determinants of the modern-services-driven sectors and the goods-production-driven sectors. In our empirical analysis of the determinants of Indian exports of software services and of the total Indian goods exports, we raise the following questions: How (dis)similar is the performance of the Indian exports of software from the determinants of India's total exports of goods? Are such differ...
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作者：Owyang, MT; Piger, J; Wall, HJ
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：The U.S. aggregate business cycle is often characterized as a series of distinct recession and expansion phases. We apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indices to characterize state business cycles in this way. We find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases: Recession growth rates are related to industry mix, whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition. Further, states differ significan...
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作者：Wu, XM; Perloff, JM
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We employ a new method to estimate China's income distribution using publicly available interval summary statistics. We examine rural, urban, and overall income distributions from 1985 to 2001. We show how the distributions change directly, and we examine trends in inequality. Using an intertemporal decomposition of aggregate inequality, we determine that increases in inequality within rural and urban sectors and the growing rural-urban income gap have been equally responsible for the growth i...
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作者：Doyle, BM; Faust, J
摘要：This paper investigates breaks in the variability and comovement of output, consumption, and investment in the G-7 economies. In contrast with most other papers on comovement, we test for changes in comovement, allowing for breaks in mean and variance. Despite claims that rising integration among these economies has increased output correlations among them, we find no clear evidence of an increase in correlation of growth rates of output, consumption, or investment. This finding is true even f...
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作者：Hu, AGZ; Jefferson, GH; Qian, JC
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Brandeis University
摘要：In bridging the technology gap with the OECD nations, developing economies have access to three avenues of technological advance: domestic R&D, technology transfer, and foreign direct investment. This paper examines the contributions of each of these avenues, as well as their interactions, to productivity within Chinese industry. Based on a large data set for China's large and medium-size enterprises, the estimation results show that in-house R&D significantly complements technology transfer-w...
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作者：Beaudry, P; Collard, F; Green, DA
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of British Columbia
摘要：Why have some countries done so much better than others over the recent past? This paper sheds light on this issue by providing a decomposition of the change in the distribution of output per worker across countries over the period 1960-1998. We find that most of the change in shape of the world distribution of income can be accounted for by a very substantial increase in the social returns to capital accumulation. In contrast, we do not find significant effects coming through changes in the e...
