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作者：Bordo, Michael D.; Haubrich, Joseph G.
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, and has been strongest in the post-World War II period.
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作者：Chun, Hyunbae; Nadiri, M. Ishaq
作者单位：Sogang University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In this paper, we examine the sources of the productivity growth in the U.S. computer industry from 1978 to 1999. We estimate a joint production model of output quantity and quality that distinguishes two types of technological changes: process and product innovations. Based on the estimation results, we decompose total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate into the contributions of process and product innovations and scale economies. We find that product innovation associated with better qual...
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作者：Evans, Paul; Wang, Xiaojun
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Hawaii System
摘要：This paper investigates the relationship between nominal interest rates and prices using nearly two centuries of data from ten industrial countries. Both a positive relationship between interest rates and price levels (that is, a positive Gibson effect) and a negative relationship between interest rates and subsequent price changes (that is, a negative Fama-Fisher effect) prevailed until World War I. We propose a simple explanation wherein this doubly paradoxical juxtaposition of effects arise...
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作者：Levitt, Steven D.
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Over the past thirty years, the use of child safety seats in motor vehicles has increased dramatically. There is, however, relatively little empirical evidence regarding the efficacy of child safety seats relative to the much cheaper alternative of traditional seat belts. Using data on all fatal crashes in the United States from 1975 to 2003, 1 find that child safety seats, in actual practice, do not provide any discernible improvement over adult lap and shoulder belts in reducing fatalities a...
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作者：McIntosh, Craig
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：This paper demonstrates a method for estimating treatment effects in spatial tests, utilizing a second control group to measure unexplained spatial phenomena. The technique is implemented on two innovations in Ugandan microfinance, and we measure the ways in which concurrent shocks such as an Ebola outbreak and a contentious presidential election altered outcomes differentially across regions. By correcting. for this spatial heterogeneity, we measure the impact of the policies; a program that ...
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作者：Disdier, Anne-Celia; Head, Keith
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：One of the best-established empirical results in international economics is that bilateral trade decreases with distance. Although well known, this result has not been systematically analyzed before. We examine 1,467 distance effects estimated in 103 papers. Information collected on each estimate allows us to test hypotheses about the causes of variation in the estimates. Our most interesting finding is that the estimated negative impact of distance on trade rose around the middle of the centu...
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作者：Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V.; Tavares, Jose
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：The secular rise in female labor force participation, highlighted in the recent macroeconomics literature on growth and structural change, has been associated with the declining price and wider availability of home appliances. This paper uses a new and unique country data set on the price of home appliances to test its impact on female labor supply. We assess the role of the price of appliances in raising participation by comparing it to other structural determinants such as average male incom...
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作者：Tavares, Jose
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：This paper uses aggregate data to test the implication that capital-poor individuals favor trade liberalization in poor (capital-scarce) countries and are against it in rich (labor-scarce) countries. Income per capita is used as a proxy for the country capital-labor ratio while political rights is used as a proxy for the capital-labor ratio of the median voter. We analyze the determinants of average tariff rates in a cross section of countries to find that they are negatively associated with b...
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作者：Chen, Lein-Lein; Choi, Seungmook; Devereux, John
作者单位：City University of New York (CUNY) System; Queens College NY (CUNY); Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno; Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno
摘要：We compare price level and income convergence since 1870 for eleven developed economies using implicit price deflators derived from the GDP data of Maddison (1995, 2001, 2003). We find that sigma and beta convergence for prices occurs later and to,a lesser extent than income. Price levels converge after 1950 while income convergence begins in the 1880s. We find no evidence for stochastic price convergence or for club price convergence.
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作者：Vigfusson, Robert
摘要：This study reports on how much productivity fluctuations are industry specific versus country specific. For the manufacturing industries in Canada and the United States, the correlation between cross-border pairings of the same industry are found to be more often highly correlated than previously thought. Furthermore, the study confirms earlier findings that the similarity of input use can help describe the comovement of productivity fluctuations across industries.
