-
作者：Kauppi, Heikki; Saikkonen, Pentti
作者单位：University of Turku; University of Helsinki
摘要：We develop dynamic binary probit models and apply them for predicting U.S. recessions using the interest rate spread as the driving predictor. The new models use lags of the binary response (a recession dummy) to forecast its future values and allow for the potential forecast power of lags of the underlying conditional probability. We show how multiperiod-ahead forecasts are computed iteratively using the same one-period-ahead model. Iterated forecasts that apply specific lags supported by sta...
-
作者：Autor, David H.; Katz, Lawrence F.; Kearney, Melissa S.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Brookings Institution; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：A recent revisionist literature characterizes the pronounced rise in U.S. wage inequality since 1980 as an episodic event of the first half of the 1980s driven by nonmarket factors (particularly a falling real minimum wage) and concludes that continued increases in wage inequality since the late 1980s substantially reflect the mechanical confounding effects of changes in labor force composition. Analyzing data from the Current Population Survey for 1963 to 2005, we find limited support for the...
-
作者：Cavalcanti, Tiago V. de V.; Tavares, Jose
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：The secular rise in female labor force participation, highlighted in the recent macroeconomics literature on growth and structural change, has been associated with the declining price and wider availability of home appliances. This paper uses a new and unique country data set on the price of home appliances to test its impact on female labor supply. We assess the role of the price of appliances in raising participation by comparing it to other structural determinants such as average male incom...
-
作者：Tavares, Jose
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：This paper uses aggregate data to test the implication that capital-poor individuals favor trade liberalization in poor (capital-scarce) countries and are against it in rich (labor-scarce) countries. Income per capita is used as a proxy for the country capital-labor ratio while political rights is used as a proxy for the capital-labor ratio of the median voter. We analyze the determinants of average tariff rates in a cross section of countries to find that they are negatively associated with b...
-
作者：Basistha, Arabinda; Startz, Richard
作者单位：West Virginia University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance and gives a 33% reduction in the confidence band. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly valuable. The essential notion is the existence of a common cyclical force driving the macroeconomic variables. Model comparisons based on the use of Bayes...
-
作者：Bleakley, Hoyt; Cowan, Kevin
作者单位：University of Chicago; Central Bank of Chile
摘要：Emerging-markets firms often carry foreign-currency debt on their balance sheets. Following a depreciation, the expanding peso value of dollar liabilities could, via a net-worth effect, offset the expansionary competitiveness effect. To assess which effect dominates, we use accounting data (including the currency composition of liabilities) for 450+ nonfinancial firms in five Latin American countries in the 1990s. We find that firms holding more dollar debt do not invest less than their pesoin...
-
作者：Jones, Benjamin F.; Olken, Benjamin A.
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：This paper investigates the remarkable extremes of growth experiences within countries and the changes that occur across growth transitions. We find two main results. First, virtually all but the very richest countries experience both growth miracles and failures over substantial periods. Second, growth accelerations and collapses are asymmetric phenomena. Collapses typically feature reduced investment amidst increasing price instability, whereas growth takeoffs are primarily associated with l...
-
作者：Chen, Lein-Lein; Choi, Seungmook; Devereux, John
作者单位：City University of New York (CUNY) System; Queens College NY (CUNY); Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno; Nevada System of Higher Education (NSHE); University of Nevada Reno
摘要：We compare price level and income convergence since 1870 for eleven developed economies using implicit price deflators derived from the GDP data of Maddison (1995, 2001, 2003). We find that sigma and beta convergence for prices occurs later and to,a lesser extent than income. Price levels converge after 1950 while income convergence begins in the 1880s. We find no evidence for stochastic price convergence or for club price convergence.
-
作者：Vigfusson, Robert
摘要：This study reports on how much productivity fluctuations are industry specific versus country specific. For the manufacturing industries in Canada and the United States, the correlation between cross-border pairings of the same industry are found to be more often highly correlated than previously thought. Furthermore, the study confirms earlier findings that the similarity of input use can help describe the comovement of productivity fluctuations across industries.
-
作者：Teulings, Coen; van Rens, Thijs
作者单位：CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy; University of Amsterdam; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：Estimates of the effect of education on GDP (the social return) have been hard to reconcile with micro evidence on the private return to schooling. We present a simple explanation combining two ideas: imperfect substitution and endogenous skill-biased technological progress and use cross-country panel data on inequality and GDP to test these ideas. A one-year increase in the level of education reduces the private return by 2 percentage points, consistent with Katz-Murphy's (1992) elasticity of...
