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作者：Angrist, Joshua D.; Kuersteiner, Guido M.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Georgetown University
摘要：We develop semiparametric tests for conditional independence in time series models of causal effects. Our approach is motivated by empirical studies of monetary policy effects and is semiparametric in the sense that we model the process determining the distribution of treatment-the policy propensity score-but leave the model for outcomes unspecified. A conceptual innovation is that we adapt the cross-sectional potential outcomes framework to a time series setting. We also develop root-T consis...
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作者：Greiner, D. James; Rubin, Donald B.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Despite their ubiquity, observational studies to infer the causal effect of a so-called immutable characteristic, such as race or sex, have struggled for coherence, given the unavailability of a manipulation analogous to a treatment in a randomized experiment and the danger of posttreatment bias. We demonstrate that a shift in focus from actual traits to perceptions of them can address both of these issues while facilitating articulation of other critical concepts, particularly the timing of t...
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作者：Topalova, Petia; Khandelwal, Amit
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper exploits India's rapid, comprehensive, and externally imposed trade reform to establish a causal link between changes in tariffs and firm productivity. Pro-competitive forces, resulting from lower tariffs on final goods, as well as access to better inputs, due to lower input tariffs, both appear to have increased firm-level productivity, with input tariffs having a larger impact. The effect was strongest in import-competing industries and industries not subject to excessive domestic...
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作者：Palangkaraya, Alfons; Webster, Elizabeth; Jensen, Paul H.
作者单位：University of Melbourne; University of Melbourne
摘要：In this paper, we estimate the extent of misclassification in patent examination decisions between the European Patent Office (EPO) and the Japanese Patent Office (JPO), that is, applications that are incorrectly refused a patent or incorrectly granted a patent. Using a proxy for inventive step as the predictor of the correct decision, we find that the probability that a true grant'' application is refused is 6.1%, while the probability that a true refusal'' application is granted is 9.8%. How...
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作者：Tervio, Marko
作者单位：Aalto University
摘要：I look for divisions to clusters among academic departments in three disciplines: economics, mathematics, and comparative literature. I define clusters as subsets of departments with unexpectedly little hiring across the cluster lines. The division within economics is by far the strongest, is consistent with anecdotal evidence about freshwater and saltwater schools of thought and has been stable over time. There is also a significant division within comparative literature, but the hiring patte...
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作者：Brunner, Eric; Ross, Stephen L.; Washington, Ebonya
作者单位：Quinnipiac University; University of Connecticut; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using California ballot proposition returns and exogenous shifts to labor demand, we provide the first large-scale causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on policy preferences. Consistent with economic theory, we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies. More notably, we find evidence of a need for cognitive consistency in voting behavior as economic shocks have a smaller significant impact on voting on noneconomic ballot issues. While we al...
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作者：Hoffman, Mitchell
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This paper considers the decision of Gentiles whether to rescue Jews during the Holocaust, a situation of altruistic behavior under life-or-death stakes. I examine the role to which economic factors may have influenced the decision to be a rescuer. Using cross-country data and detailed individual-level data on rescuers and nonrescuers, I find that richer countries had many more rescuers than poorer ones, and within countries, richer people were more likely to be rescuers than poorer people. Th...
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作者：Aguila, Emma; Attanasio, Orazio; Meghir, Costas
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Previous empirical literature has found a sharp decline in consumption during the first years of retirement, implying that individuals do not save enough for their retirement. This phenomenon is called the retirement consumption puzzle. We find no evidence of the retirement consumption puzzle using panel data from 1980 to 2000. Consumption is defined as nondurable expenditure, a more comprehensive measure than only food used in many of the previous studies. We find that food expenditure declin...
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作者：Choi, James J.; Laibson, David; Madrian, Brigitte C.
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：We identify employees at seven companies whose 401(k) investment choices are dominated because they are contributing less than the employer matching contribution threshold despite being vested in their match and being able to make penalty-free 401(k) withdrawals for any reason because they are older than 59 1/2. At the average firm, 36% of match-eligible employees over age 59 1/2 forgo arbitrage profits that average 1.6% of their annual pay, or $507. A survey educating employees about the free...
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作者：Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel
摘要：How and why do politicians' preferences about monetary policy differ from the interest rates set by independent central banks? Looking at the European Central Bank (ECB), this paper shows that politicians, on average, favor significantly lower interest rates. Three factors explain the different preferences. First, politicians put relatively less weight on inflation (and more on output) in their preferred monetary policy reaction function. Second, their preferences are affected by political eco...
