ECONOMICS AND POLICY PREFERENCES: CAUSAL EVIDENCE OF THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON SUPPORT FOR REDISTRIBUTION AND OTHER BALLOT PROPOSALS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brunner, Eric; Ross, Stephen L.; Washington, Ebonya
• 署名单位: Quinnipiac University; University of Connecticut; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00088
• 发表日期: 2011-08
• 页码: 888-906
• 关键词: voting-behavior; outcomes; decline; income; taxes; LAND

摘要

Using California ballot proposition returns and exogenous shifts to labor demand, we provide the first large-scale causal evidence of the impact of economic conditions on policy preferences. Consistent with economic theory, we find that positive economic shocks decrease support for redistributive policies. More notably, we find evidence of a need for cognitive consistency in voting behavior as economic shocks have a smaller significant impact on voting on noneconomic ballot issues. While we also demonstrate that positive shocks decrease turnout, we present evidence that our results reflect changes in the electorate's preferences and not simply to its composition.