作者：Michalski, Tomasz; Stoltz, Gilles
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Inria; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
摘要：Using Benford's law, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their economic data strategically. We group countries with similar economic conditions and find that for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions, negative current account balances, or more vulnerable to capital flow reversals, we reject the first-digit law for the balance-of-payments data. This corroborates the intuition of a simple economic model. The...
作者：Bataa, Erdenebat; Osborn, Denise R.; Sensier, Marianne; van Dijk, Dick
作者单位：National University of Mongolia; University of Manchester; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：This paper proposes an iterative procedure to discriminate between structural breaks in the coefficients and the disturbance covariance matrix of a system of equations, with recursive procedures then identifying individual coefficient shifts and separating volatility from correlation breaks. Structural breaks in short-term cross-country inflation relations are then examined for major G-7 economies and within the euro area. There is evidence that the euro area leads inflation in North America, ...
