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作者：Burke, Marshall; Dykema, John; Lobell, David B.; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker
作者单位：Stanford University; Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; New York University
摘要：Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an importa...
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作者：Konings, Jozef; Vanormelingen, Stijn
作者单位：KU Leuven; University of Ljubljana
摘要：This paper uses firm-level panel data of on-the-job training to estimate its impact on productivity and wages. To this end, we apply and extend the control function approach for estimating production functions, which allows us to correct for the endogeneity of input factors and training. We find that the productivity premium of a trained worker is substantially higher compared to the wage premium. Our results are consistent with recent theories that explain work-related training by imperfect c...
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作者：Lochner, Lance; Moretti, Enrico
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Empirical researchers interested in the causal effect of the endogenous regressor often use instrumental variables. When few valid instruments are available, they typically estimate restricted specifications that impose uniform per unit treatment effects, even when these effects are likely to vary. We show that in these cases, ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimators identify different weighted averages of all per unit effects, so the traditional Hausman test is uninformati...
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作者：Ashraf, Nava; Aycinena, Diego; Martinez A, Claudia; Yang, Dean
作者单位：Harvard University; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We implemented a randomized field experiment that tested ways to stimulate migrants' savings in their origin country. We find that migrants value opportunities to exert greater control over financial activities in their home countries. We offered U.S.-based migrants bank accounts in El Salvador, randomly varying migrant control over El Salvador-based savings by offering different accounts across treatments. Migrants offered the greatest degree of control accumulated the most savings. Impacts l...
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作者：Sexton, Steven
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：The introduction of automatic bill payment (ABP) programs in 2005 eliminated the need for consumers to view recurring bills. If those enrolled in ABP programs offered by utilities and other service providers forgo inspection of their recurring bills, then price salience declines, prices perceived by boundedly rational agents fall, and consumption increases. This paper considers the impact of such programs on consumer demand and welfare and empirically tests whether enrollment in such programs ...
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作者：Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Primiceri, Giorgio E.
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Northwestern University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Vector autoregressions (VARs) are flexible time series models that can capture complex dynamic interrelationships among macroeconomic variables. However, their dense parameterization leads to unstable inference and inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts, particularly for models with many variables. A solution to this problem is to use informative priors in order to shrink the richly parameterized unrestricted model toward a parsimonious nave benchmark, and thus reduce estimation uncertainty. This ...
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作者：Hainmueller, Jens; Hiscox, Michael J.; Sequeira, Sandra
作者单位：Stanford University; Harvard University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We provide new evidence on consumer demand for ethical products from experiments conducted in a U.S. grocery store chain. We find that sales of the two most popular coffees rose by almost 10% when they carried a Fair Trade label as compared to a generic placebo label. Demand for the higher-priced coffee remained steady when its price was raised by 8%, but demand for the lower-priced coffee was elastic: a 9% price increase led to a 30% decline in sales. While consumers attach value to ethical s...
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作者：Huber, Martin; Mellace, Giovanni
作者单位：University of Fribourg; University of Southern Denmark
摘要：We derive testable implications of instrument validity in just identified treatment effect models with endogeneity and consider several tests. The identifying assumptions of the local average treatment effect allow us to both point identify and bound the mean potential outcomes of the always takers under treatment and the never takers under nontreatment. The point-identified means must lie within their respective bounds, which provides us with four testable inequality moment constraints. Final...
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作者：Carpenter, Christopher; Dobkin, Carlos
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We use variation from the minimum legal drinking age to estimate the causal effect of access to alcohol on crime. Using a census of arrests in California and a regression discontinuity design, we find that individuals just over age 21 are 5.9% more likely to be arrested than individuals just under 21. This increase is mostly due to assaults, alcohol-related offenses, and nuisance crimes. These results suggest that policies that restrict access to alcohol have the potential to substantially red...
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作者：Imberman, Scott A.; Lovenheim, Michael F.
作者单位：Michigan State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Cornell University
摘要：We estimate the impact of incentive strength on achievement under a group-based teacher incentive pay program. The system provides variation in the share of students in a subject-grade that a teacher instructs, which proxies for incentive strength. We find that achievement on incentivized exams, but not nonincentivized exams, improves when incentives strengthen. For the incentivized exams, we find that effects fade out monotonically as a teacher's portion of the group increases to between 20 a...
