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作者：Hakobyan, Shushanik; McLaren, John
作者单位：Fordham University; University of Virginia
摘要：Using U.S. Census data for 1990 to 2000, we estimate effects of NAFTAon U.S.wages.We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports and each locality's dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities, whose jobs do not compete with import...
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作者：Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Kamil, Herman; Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Universitat Ramon Llull; Escuela Superior de Administracion y Direccion de Empresas (ESADE)
摘要：We quantify the effects of lending and balance sheet channels on corporate investment during large devaluations. We find that if currency crises are accompanied by banking crises, domestic exporters holding unhedged foreign currency debt decrease investment while foreign exporters with better access to credit increase investment despite their unhedged foreign currency debt. We do not find such a differential effect under pure currency crises. Using firm-bank matched data during the global fina...
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作者：Dahl, Gordon B.; Loken, Katrine V.; Mogstad, Magne; Salvanes, Kari Vea
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Bergen; University of Chicago; Statistics Norway; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oslo
摘要：We assess the case for generous government-funded maternity leave, focusing on a series of policy reforms in Norway that expanded paid leave from 18 to 35 weeks. We find the reforms do not crowd out unpaid leave and that mothers spend more time at home without a reduction in family income. The increased maternity leave has little effect on children's schooling, parental earnings and labor force participation, completed fertility, marriage, or divorce. The expansions, whose net costs amounted t...
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作者：Alexopoulos, Michelle; Cohen, Jon
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：New indicators, based on technology titles, are used to measure the impact of innovative activity on the U.S. labor market between 1909 and 1949. We find that positive technology shocks raised productivity, employment, vacancies, and labor turnover and lowered unemployment and business failures. Moreover, automotive and electrical innovations (quintessential general-purpose technologies) had a greater positive impact on employment than those in mechanical innovations. The overall results, comp...
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作者：Edge, Rochelle M.; Rudd, Jeremy B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We consider the revision properties of Federal Reserve Board staff estimates of the output gap after the mid-1990s and examine the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve's output gap is more reliably estimated in real time than previous studies have documented for earlier periods and alternative estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation projection...
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作者：Benjamin, Daniel J.; Choi, James J.; Fisher, Geoffrey
作者单位：University of Southern California; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; Cornell University
摘要：We find using laboratory experiments that primes that make religion salient cause subjects to identify more with their religion and affect their economic choices. The effect on choices varies by religion. For example, priming causes Protestants to increase contributions to public goods, whereas Catholics decrease contributions to public goods, expect others to contribute less to public goods, and become less risk averse. A simple model implies that priming effects reveal the sign of the margin...
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作者：Deshpande, Manasi
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I estimate the effect of removing children with disabilities from Supplemental Security Income (SSI) on parental earnings and household disability receipt. Using administrative data from the Social Security Administration (SSA), I implement regression discontinuity and differencein- differences designs based on changes in SSA's budget for child medical reviews. I find that parents fully offset the SSI loss with increased earnings, and the loss of the child's SSI payment reduces disability appl...
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作者：Gumpert, Anna; Hines, James R., Jr.; Schnitzer, Monika
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Multinational firms with operations in high-tax countries can benefit the most from reallocating taxable income to tax havens, though this is sufficiently difficult and costly that only 20.4% of German multinational firms have any tax haven affiliates. Among German manufacturing firms, a 1 percentage point higher foreign tax rate is associated with a 2.3% greater likelihood of owning a tax haven affiliate. This is consistent with tax avoidance incentives and contrasts with earlier evidence for...
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作者：Elliott, Graham; Ghanem, Dalia; Krueger, Fabian
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Davis; Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies
摘要：We consider constructing probability forecasts from a parametric binary choice model under a large family of loss functions (scoring rules). Scoring rules are weighted averages over the utilities that heterogeneous decision makers derive from a publicly announced forecast (Schervish, 1989). Using analytical and numerical examples, we illustrate howdifferent scoring rules yield asymptotically identical results if the model is correctly specified. Under misspecification, the choice of scoring ru...
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作者：Shen, Shu; Zhang, Xiaohan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; California State University System; California State University Los Angeles
摘要：This paper proposes consistent testing methods for examining the effect of a policy treatment on the whole distribution of a response outcome within the setting of a regression discontinuity design. These methods are particularly useful when a policy is expected to produce treatment effects that are heterogeneous along some unobserved characteristics. The test statistics are Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type and are asymptotically distribution free when the data are i.i.d. The proposed tests are applied...
