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作者：Chemin, Matthieu
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; McGill University; McGill University; Universite de Montreal
摘要：I assemble and classify a database of judicial reforms funded by foreign aid agencies as either comprehensive (targeting all characteristics of quality, speed, access) or limited reform. A triple difference is used to compare firms in countries with or without judicial reforms, before and after reforms, and in sectors more or less reliant on contract enforcement mechanisms, due to their need for relationship-specific investments. I find that externally financed comprehensive judicial reforms i...
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作者：Clark, Todd E.; McCracken, Michael W.; Mertens, Elmar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We estimate uncertainty measures for point forecasts obtained from survey data, pooling information embedded in observed forecast errors for different forecast horizons. To track time-varying uncertainty in the associated forecast errors, we derive a multiple-horizon specification of stochastic volatility. We apply our method to forecasts for various macroeconomic variables from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Compared to simple variance approaches, our stochastic volatility model impr...
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作者：Amirapu, Amrit; Gechter, Michael
作者单位：University of Kent; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：In this paper, we estimate the costs associated with an important suite of labor regulations in India by taking advantage of the fact that these regulations apply only to firms above a size threshold. Using distortions in the firm size distribution together with a structural model of firm size choice, we estimate that the regulations increase firms' unit labor costs by 35%. This estimate is robust to potential misreporting on the part of firms and enumerators. We also document a robust positiv...
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作者：Carvalho, Carlos; Dam, Niels Arne; Lee, Jae Won
作者单位：Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; University of Virginia
摘要：We provide evidence on three mechanisms that can reconcile frequent individual price changes with sluggish aggregate price dynamics. To that end, we estimate a semistructural model that can extract information about real rigidities and the distribution of price stickiness from aggregate data. Hence, the model can also speak to the debate about the aggregate implications of sales. Our estimates indicate large real rigidities and substantial heterogeneity in price stickiness. Moreover, the cross...
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作者：Prantl, Susanne; Spitz-Oener, Alexandra
作者单位：University of Cologne; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：After the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, and the collapse of the German Democratic Republic, a sudden, unexpected, and massive influx of East German migrants hit the entire West German labor market. The context is well suited for investigating whether immigration influences natives' wages and how the effects depend on product and labor market conditions. We propose direct measures of potential migration with exogenous variation, compare migrants to natives with similar capabiliti...
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作者：Card, David; DellaVigna, Stefano
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study editorial decisions using anonymized submissions matched to citations at four leading economics journals. We develop a benchmark model in which editors maximize the expected quality of accepted papers and citations are unbiased measures of quality. We then generalize the model to allow different quality thresholds, systematic gaps between citations and quality, and a direct impact of publication on citations. We find that referee recommendations are strong predictors of citations and ...
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作者：Christelis, Dimitris; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Jappelli, Tullio; van Rooij, Maarten
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Tilburg University; European Central Bank; University of Naples Federico II; University of Naples Federico II; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV
摘要：Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of precautionary saving by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. Expected consumption risk is positively correlated with self-employment and income risk and negatively with age. We insert these subjective expectations (rather than consumption realizations, as in the existing literature) in an Euler equation for consumption and estimate the degree of prudence by associating expected c...
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作者：Jaimovich, Nir; Siu, Henry E.
作者单位：University of Zurich; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in...
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作者：Cravino, Javier; Haltenhof, Sam
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Aggregate price levels are positively related to GDP per capita across countries. We propose a mechanism that rationalizes this observation through sectoral differences in intermediate input shares. As productivity and income grow, so do wages relative to intermediate input prices, which increases the relative price of nontradables if tradable sectors use intermediate inputs more intensively. We show that sectoral differences in input intensities can account for about half of the observed elas...
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作者：Verdier, Valentin
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：Models with multiway fixed effects are frequently used to address selection on unobservables. The data used for estimating these models often contain few observations per value of either indexing variable (sparsely matched data). I show that this sparsity has important implications for inference and propose an asymptotically valid inference method based on subsetting. Sparsity also has important implications for point estimation when covariates or instrumental variables are sequentially exogen...
