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作者：Christensen, Peter; Francisco, Paul; Myers, Erica; Souza, Mateus
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Calgary; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：Evaluations of energy efficiency programs reveal that realized savings consistently fall short of projections. We decompose this performance wedge using data from the Illinois Home Weatherization Assistance Program (IHWAP) and a machine learning-based event study research design. We find that bias in engineering models can account for up to 41% of the wedge, primarily from overestimated savings in wall insulation. Heterogeneity in workmanship can also account for a large fraction (43%) of the ...
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作者：Boone, Christopher D. A.; Wilse-Samson, Laurence
作者单位：University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; University of Johannesburg
摘要：We analyze sectoral labor reallocation and the reversal of urbanization in the United States during the Great Depression. The widespread movement to farms, which serves as a form of migratory insurance during the crisis, is largely toward farms with low levels of mechanization. In contrast, the mechanized agricultural sector sheds workers, many of whom reallocate into low-productivity or subsistence farming. The crisis perverts the normal process of structural change in which workers displaced...
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作者：Wuthrich, Kaspar; Zhu, Ying
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study the finite sample behavior of Lasso-based inference methods such as post-double Lasso and debiased Lasso. We show that these methods can exhibit substantial omitted variable biases (OVBs) due to Lasso's not selecting relevant controls. This phenomenon can occur even when the coefficients are sparse and the sample size is large and larger than the number of controls. Therefore, relying on the existing asymptotic inference theory can be problematic in empirical applications. We compare ...
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作者：Ye, Han; Yi, Junjian
作者单位：Lingnan University; Peking University
摘要：Using administrative data from a large and diverse emergency department (ED), we examine the impact of race concordance between patients and physicians on physician decision-making and patient health outcomes. We find that patient-physician race concordance increases consultation time and decreases the probability of inpatient admission and diagnostic testing. Subsequently, race-concordant patients have lower revisit rates after ED discharge. The effect of race concordance is largely driven by...
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作者：Barron, Kai; Harmgart, Heike; Huck, Steffen; Schneider, Sebastian O.; Sutter, Matthias
作者单位：European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; University of London; University College London; Max Planck Society; University of Cologne; Max Planck Society; University of Innsbruck
摘要：We measure the prevalence of discrimination between Jordanian host and Syrian refugee children attending school in Jordan. Using a simple sharing experiment, we find only a small degree of out-group discrimination. However, Jordanian children with Palestinian roots do not discriminate at all, suggesting that a family history of refugee status can generate solidarity with new refugees. We also find that parents' narratives about the refugee crisis are correlated with their children's degree of ...
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Jensen, Anders; Persson, Torsten
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); Harvard University
摘要：This paper studies individual and social motives in tax evasion. We build a simple dynamic model that incorporates these motives and their interaction. The social motives underpin the role of norms and are the source of the dynamics that we study. Our empirical analysis exploits the adoption in 1990 of a poll tax to fund local government in the United Kingdom, which led to widespread evasion. The evidence is consistent with the model's main predictions on the dynamics of evasion.
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作者：de Clippel, Geoffroy; Rozen, Kareen
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：We propose relaxing the first-order conditions in optimization to approximate rational consumer choice. We assess the magnitude of departures with a new, axiomatically founded measure that admits multiple interpretations. Standard inequality tests of rationality for any given reference class of preferences can be conveniently repurposed to measure goodness-of-fit with that class. Another advantage of our approach is that it is applicable in any context where the first-order approach is meaning...
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作者：Enke, Benjamin; Gneezy, Uri; Hall, Brian; Martin, David; Nelidov, Vadim; Offerman, Theo; van de Ven, Jeroen
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Harvard University; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：Despite decades of research on heuristics and biases, evidence on the effect of large incentives on cognitive biases is scant. We test the effect of incentives on four widely documented biases: base-rate neglect, anchoring, failure of contingent thinking, and intuitive reasoning. In laboratory experiments with 1,236 college students in Nairobi, we implement three incentive levels: no incentives, standard lab payments, and very high incentives. We find that very high stakes increase response ti...
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作者：Aggarwal, Shilpa; Brailovskaya, Valentina; Robinson, Jonathan
作者单位：Indian School of Business (ISB); University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We test whether the provision of multiple labeled savings accounts affects savings and downstream outcomes in an experiment with 761 microentrepreneurs in urban Malawi. Treatment respondents received one or multiple savings accounts, in the form of lockboxes or mobile money. We find that while providing additional boxes increased savings by 40%, technical issues marred the efficacy of a second mobile money account. Data from novel high-frequency surveys suggest that both types of accounts had ...
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作者：Agarwal, Sumit; Kigabo, Thomas; Minoiu, Camelia; Presbitero, Andrea F.; Silva, Andre F.
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; International Monetary Fund; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：A large-scale microcredit expansion program-together with a credit bureau accessible to all lenders-can enable unbanked borrowers to build a credit history, facilitating their transition to commercial banks. Loan-level data from Rwanda show the program improved access to credit and reduced poverty. A sizable share of first-time borrowers switched to commercial banks, which cream-skim less risky borrowers and grant them larger, cheaper, and longer-maturity loans. Switchers have lower default ri...
