Decomposing the Wedge between Projected and Realized Returns in Energy Efficiency Programs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Christensen, Peter; Francisco, Paul; Myers, Erica; Souza, Mateus
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of Calgary; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01087
• 发表日期: 2023-07
• 页码: 798-817
• 关键词: indoor air-quality; weatherization; savings; cost; gas

摘要

Evaluations of energy efficiency programs reveal that realized savings consistently fall short of projections. We decompose this performance wedge using data from the Illinois Home Weatherization Assistance Program (IHWAP) and a machine learning-based event study research design. We find that bias in engineering models can account for up to 41% of the wedge, primarily from overestimated savings in wall insulation. Heterogeneity in workmanship can also account for a large fraction (43%) of the wedge, while the rebound effect can explain only 6%. We find substantial heterogeneity in energy-related benefits from IHWAP projects, suggesting opportunities for better targeting of investments.