The Annals of Applied Statistics

最新文章

• AN EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR AGGREGATE PATTERNS OF REPLICATION FAILURE AI翻译
  作者：Schauer, Jacob M.; Fitzgerald, Kaitlyn G.; Peko-Spicer, Sarah; Whalen, Mena C. R.; Zejnullahi, Rrita; Hedges, Larry, V
  作者单位：Northwestern University; Feinberg School of Medicine; Northwestern University
  摘要：Several programs of research have sought to assess the replicability of scientific findings in different fields, including economics and psychology. These programs attempt to replicate several findings and use the results to say something about large-scale patterns of replicability in a field. However, little work has been done to understand the analytic methods used to do this, including what they are assessing and what their statistical properties are. This article examines several methods t...
• INFORMATION CONTENT OF HIGH-ORDER ASSOCIATIONS OF THE HUMAN GUT MICROBIOTA NETWORK AI翻译
  作者：Viles, Weston D.; Madan, Juliette C.; Li, Hongzhe; Karagas, Margaret R.; Hoen, Anne G.
  作者单位：Dartmouth College; University of Pennsylvania
  摘要：The human gastrointestinal tract is an environment that hosts an ecosystem of microorganisms essential to human health. Vital biological processes emerge from fundamental inter- and intraspecies molecular interactions that influence the assembly and composition of the gut microbiota ecology. Here, we quantify the complexity of the ecological relationships within the human infant gut microbiota ecosystem as a function of the information contained in the nonlinear associations of a sequence of i...
• EFFICIENT BAYESIAN INFERENCE OF GENERAL GAUSSIAN MODELS ON LARGE PHYLOGENETIC TREES AI翻译
  作者：Bastide, Paul; Ho, Lam Si Tung; Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.
  作者单位：Universite de Montpellier; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Dalhousie University; KU Leuven; California State University System; California State University Los Angeles; California State University System; California State University Los Angeles; California State University System; California State University Los Angeles
  摘要：Phylogenetic comparative methods correct for shared evolutionary history among a set of nonindependent organisms by modeling sample traits as arising from a diffusion process along the branches of a possibly unknown history. To incorporate such uncertainty, we present a scalable Bayesian inference framework under a general Gaussian trait evolution model that exploits Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). HMC enables efficient sampling of the constrained model parameters and takes advantage of the tre...
• SPATIAL DISTRIBUTED LAG DATA FUSION FOR ESTIMATING AMBIENT AIR POLLUTION AI翻译
  作者：Warren, Joshua L.; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Tootoo, Joshua L.; Osgood, Claire E.; Bell, Michelle L.
  作者单位：Yale University; University of Notre Dame; University of Notre Dame; Yale University
  摘要：We introduce spatial (DLfuse) and spatiotemporal (DLfuseST) distributed lag data fusion methods for predicting point-level ambient air pollution concentrations, using, as input, gridded average pollution estimates from a deterministic numerical air quality model. The methods incorporate predictive information from grid cells surrounding the prediction location of interest and are shown to collapse to existing downscaling approaches when this information adds no benefit. The spatial lagged para...
• A MULTIVARIATE SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGE-POINT MODEL OF OPIOID OVERDOSE DEATHS IN OHIO AI翻译
  作者：Hepler, Staci A.; Waller, Lance A.; Kline, David M.
  作者单位：Wake Forest University; Emory University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
  摘要：Ohio is one of the states most impacted by the opioid epidemic and experienced the second highest age-adjusted fatal drug overdose rate in 2017. Initially it was believed prescription opioids were driving the opioid crisis in Ohio. However, as the epidemic evolved, opioid overdose deaths due to fentanyl have drastically increased. In this work we develop a Bayesian multivariate spatiotemporal model for Ohio county overdose death rates from 2007 to 2018 due to different types of opioids. The lo...
• ASSESSING SELECTION BIAS IN REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATED FROM NONPROBABILITY SAMPLES WITH APPLICATIONS TO GENETICS AND DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEYS AI翻译
  作者：West, Brady T.; Little, Roderick J.; Andridge, Rebecca R.; Boonstra, Philip S.; Ware, Erin B.; Pandit, Anita; Alvarado-Leiton, Fernanda
  作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
  摘要：Selection bias is a serious potential problem for inference about relationships of scientific interest based on samples without well-defined probability sampling mechanisms. Motivated by the potential for selection bias in: (a) estimated relationships of polygenic scores (PGSs) with phenotypes in genetic studies of volunteers and (b) estimated differences in subgroup means in surveys of smartphone users, we derive novel measures of selection bias for estimates of the coefficients in linear and...
• A BAYESIAN SEMIPARAMETRIC JOLLY-SEBER MODEL WITH INDIVIDUAL HETEROGENEITY: AN APPLICATION TO MIGRATORY MALLARDS AT STOPOVER AI翻译
  作者：Wu, Guohui; Holan, Scott H.; Avril, Alexis; Waldenstrom, Jonas
  作者单位：SAS Institute Inc; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; Linnaeus University
  摘要：We propose a Bayesian hierarchical Jolly-Seber model that can accommodate a semiparametric functional relationship between external covariates and capture probabilities, individual heterogeneity in departure due to an internal time-varying covariate and the dependence of arrival time on external covariates. Modelwise, we consider a stochastic process to characterize the evolution of the partially observable internal covariate that is linked to departure probabilities. Computationally, we devel...
• HIGH-FIDELITY HURRICANE SURGE FORECASTING USING EMULATION AND SEQUENTIAL EXPERIMENTS AI翻译
  作者：Plumlee, Matthew; Asher, Taylor G.; Chang, Won; Bilskie, Matthew, V
  作者单位：Northwestern University; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University System of Ohio; University of Cincinnati; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
  摘要：Probabilistic hurricane storm surge forecasting using a high-fidelity model has been considered impractical due to the overwhelming computational expense to run thousands of simulations. This article demonstrates that modern statistical tools enable good forecasting performance using a small number of carefully chosen simulations. This article offers algorithms that quickly handle the massive output of a surge model while addressing the missing data at unsubmerged locations. Also included is a...
• TARGETED SMOOTH BAYESIAN CAUSAL FORESTS: AN ANALYSIS OF HETEROGENEOUS TREATMENT EFFECTS FOR SIMULTANEOUS VS. INTERVAL MEDICAL ABORTION REGIMENS OVER GESTATION AI翻译
  作者：Starling, Jennifer E.; Murray, Jared S.; Lohr, Patricia A.; Aiken, Abigail R. A.; Carvalho, Carlos M.; Scott, James G.
  作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
  摘要：We introduce Targeted Smooth Bayesian Causal Forests (tsBCF), a non-parametric Bayesian approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects which vary smoothly over a single covariate in the observational data setting. The tsBCF method induces smoothness by parameterizing terminal tree nodes with smooth functions and allows for separate regularization of treatment effects vs. prognostic effect of control covariates. Smoothing parameters for prognostic and treatment effects can be chosen to...
• PAN-DISEASE CLUSTERING ANALYSIS OF THE TREND OF PERIOD PREVALENCE AI翻译
  作者：Jadhav, Sneha; Ma, Chenjin; Jiang, Yefei; Shia, Ben-Chang; Ma, Shuangge
  作者单位：Wake Forest University; Beijing University of Technology; Fu Jen Catholic University; Yale University
  摘要：Prevalence is of essential importance in biomedical and public health research. In the classic paradigm it has been studied for each disease individually. Accumulating evidence has shown that diseases can be correlated. Joint analysis of prevalence can potentially provide important insights beyond individual-disease analysis but has not been well pursued. In this study we take advantage of the unique Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and conduct the first pan-disease a...