The Annals of Applied Statistics

最新文章

• MARKOV RANDOM FIELD MODELS FOR VECTOR-BASED REPRESENTATIONS OF LANDSCAPES AI翻译
  作者：Zamberletti, Patrizia; Papaix, Julien; Gabriel, Edith; Opitz, Thomas
  作者单位：INRAE
  摘要：In agricultural landscapes the spatial distribution of cultivated and semi-natural elements strongly impacts habitat connectivity and species dynamics. To allow for landscape structural analysis and scenario generation, we here develop statistical tools for real landscapes composed of geometric elements, including 2D patches but also 1D linear elements (e.g., hedges). Utilizing the framework of discrete Markov random fields, we design generative stochastic models that combine a multiplex netwo...
• GLOBAL ESTIMATION AND SCENARIO-BASED PROJECTIONS OF SEX RATIO AT BIRTH AND MISSING FEMALE BIRTHS USING A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL TIME SERIES MIXTURE MODEL AI翻译
  作者：Chao, Fengqing; Gerland, Patrick; Cook, Alex R.; Alkema, Leontine
  作者单位：King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst
  摘要：The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is defined as the ratio of male to female live births. The SRB imbalance in parts of the world over the past several decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the coexistence of son preference, readily available technology of prenatal sex determination and fertility decline. Estimation and projection of the degree of SRB imbalance is complicated because of variability in SRB reference levels and because of the uncertainty associated with ...
• EXTENDING MODELS VIA GRADIENT BOOSTING: AN APPLICATION TO MENDELIAN MODELS AI翻译
  作者：Huang, Theodore; Idos, Gregory; Hong, Christine; Gruber, Stephen B.; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Braun, Danielle
  作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Harvard University; Harvard University Medical Affiliates; Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; City of Hope
  摘要：Improving existing widely-adopted prediction models is often a more efficient and robust way toward progress than training new models from scratch. Existing models may: (a) incorporate complex mechanistic knowledge, (b) leverage proprietary information, and (c) have surmounted barriers to adoption. Compared to model training, model improvement and modification receive little attention. In this paper we propose a general approach to model improvement: we combine gradient boosting with any previ...
• ESTIMATING HIGH-RESOLUTION RED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE HOTSPOTS, USING A LOW-RANK SEMIPARAMETRIC SPATIAL MODEL AI翻译
  作者：Hazra, Arnab; Huser, Raphael
  作者单位：King Abdullah University of Science & Technology
  摘要：In this work, we estimate extreme sea surface temperature (SST) hotspots, that is, high threshold exceedance regions, for the Red Sea, a vital region of high biodiversity. We analyze high-resolution satellite-derived SST data comprising daily measurements at 16,703 grid cells across the Red Sea over the period 1985-2015. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian spatial mixed-effects linear model with a flexible mean structure to capture spatially-varying trend and seasonality, while the residual s...
• A CONTINUOUS-TIME SEMI-MARKOV MODEL FOR ANIMAL MOVEMENT IN A DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AI翻译
  作者：Johnson, Devin; Pelland, Noel; Sterling, Jeremy
  作者单位：National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA
  摘要：We consider an extension to discrete-space, continuous-time models for animal movement that have previously been presented in the literature. The extension from a continuous-time Markov formulation to a continuous-time semi-Markov formulation allows for the inclusion of temporally dynamic habitat conditions as well as temporally changing movement responses by animals to that environment. We show that, with only a little additional consideration, the Poisson likelihood calculation for the Marko...
• SCALABLE PENALIZED SPATIOTEMPORAL LAND-USE REGRESSION FOR GROUND-LEVEL NITROGEN DIOXIDE AI翻译
  作者：Messier, Kyle P.; Katzfuss, Matthias
  作者单位：National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS); Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
  摘要：Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a primary constituent of traffic-related air pollution and has well-established harmful environmental and human-health impacts. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal distribution of NO2 is critical for exposure and risk assessment. A common approach for assessing air pollution exposure is linear regression involving spatially referenced covariates, known as land-use regression (LUR). We develop a scalable approach for simultaneous variable selection and estimation of LUR mo...
• UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION OF A COMPUTER MODEL FOR BINARY BLACK HOLE FORMATION AI翻译
  作者：Lin, Luyao; Bingham, Derek; Broekgaarden, Floor; Mandel, Ilya
  作者单位：Simon Fraser University; Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory; Smithsonian Institution; Harvard University; Monash University
  摘要：In this paper, a fast and parallelizable method based on Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to emulate computer models that simulate the formation of binary black holes (BBHs) through the evolution of pairs of massive stars. Two obstacles that arise in this application are the a priori unknown conditions of BBH formation and the large scale of the simulation data. We address them by proposing a local emulator which combines a GP classifier and a GP regression model. The resulting emulator ...
• MODELING PAST EVENT FEEDBACK THROUGH BIOMARKER DYNAMICS IN THE MULTISTATE EVENT ANALYSIS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE DATA AI翻译
  作者：Ma, Chuoxin; Dai, Hongsheng; Pan, Jianxin
  作者单位：University of Manchester; University of Essex
  摘要：In cardiovascular studies we often observe ordered multiple events along disease progression which are, essentially, a series of recurrent events and terminal events with competing risk structure. One of the main interests is to explore the event specific association with the dynamics of longitudinal biomarkers. A new statistical challenge arises when the biomarkers carry information from the past event history, providing feedbacks for the occurrences of future events and, particularly, when t...
• PARTIAL-MASTERY COGNITIVE DIAGNOSIS MODELS AI翻译
  作者：Shang, Zhuoran; Erosheva, Elena A.; Xu, Gongjun
  作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
  摘要：Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are a family of discrete latent attribute models that serve as statistical basis in educational and psychological cognitive diagnosis assessments. CDMs aim to achieve fine-grained inference on individuals' latent attributes, based on their observed responses to a set of designed diagnostic items. In the literature CDMs usually assume that items require mastery of specific latent attributes and that each attribute is either fully mastered or not mastered by a g...
• A BRIDGING MODEL TO RECONCILE STATISTICS BASED ON DATA FROM MULTIPLE SURVEYS AI翻译
  作者：Erciulescu, Andreea L.; Opsomer, Jean D.; Breidt, F. Jay
  作者单位：Westat; Colorado State University System; Colorado State University Fort Collins
  摘要：Surveys designed to collect data on similar variables using samples representing the same population may still result in different estimates due, for example, to differences in sample designs or modes of data collection. Considered in this paper is the case where two surveys were conducted concurrently, with one using the same methodology as used in prior rounds of the survey and the other using an updated methodology, resulting in substantial differences in several key estimates. Due to diffe...