ASSESSING SELECTION BIAS IN REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATED FROM NONPROBABILITY SAMPLES WITH APPLICATIONS TO GENETICS AND DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEYS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: West, Brady T.; Little, Roderick J.; Andridge, Rebecca R.; Boonstra, Philip S.; Ware, Erin B.; Pandit, Anita; Alvarado-Leiton, Fernanda
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1932-6157
• DOI: 10.1214/21-AOAS1453
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1556-1581
• 关键词: genome-wide association; pattern-mixture analysis; susceptibility loci; UNITED-STATES; models; RISK; metaanalysis; inference; education; insights

摘要

Selection bias is a serious potential problem for inference about relationships of scientific interest based on samples without well-defined probability sampling mechanisms. Motivated by the potential for selection bias in: (a) estimated relationships of polygenic scores (PGSs) with phenotypes in genetic studies of volunteers and (b) estimated differences in subgroup means in surveys of smartphone users, we derive novel measures of selection bias for estimates of the coefficients in linear and probit regression models fitted to nonprobability samples, when aggregate-level auxiliary data are available for the selected sample and the target population. The measures arise from normal pattern-mixture models that allow analysts to examine the sensitivity of their inferences to assumptions about nonignorable selection in these samples. We examine the effectiveness of the proposed measures in a simulation study and then use them to quantify the selection bias in: (a) estimated PGS-phenotype relationships in a large study of volunteers recruited via Facebook and (b) estimated subgroup differences in mean past-year employment duration in a nonprobability sample of low-educated smartphone users. We evaluate the performance of the measures in these applications using benchmark estimates from large probability samples.