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作者：Christensen, Jens H. E.; Lopez, Jose A.; Mussche, Paul L.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Insurance companies and pension funds have liabilities far into the future and typically well beyond the longest maturity bonds trading in fixed-income markets. Such long-lived liabilities still need to be discounted, and yield curve extrapolations based on the information in observed yields can be used. We use dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) yield curve models to extrapolate risk-free yield curves for Switzerland and several countries. We find slight biases in extrapolated long bond yields of jus...
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作者：Senoner, Julian; Netland, Torbjorn; Feuerriegel, Stefan
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
摘要：We develop a data-driven decision model to improve process quality in manufacturing. A challenge for traditional methods in quality management is to handle high-dimensional and nonlinear manufacturing data. We address this challenge by adapting explainable artificial intelligence to the context of quality management. Specifically, we propose the use of nonlinear modeling with Shapley additive explanations to infer how a set of production parameters and the process quality of a manufacturing sy...
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作者：Serra-Garcia, Marta; Szech, Nora
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
摘要：Ignorance enables individuals to act immorally. This is well known in policy circles, in which there is keen interest in lowering moral ignorance. In this paper, we study how the demand for moral ignorance responds to monetary incentives and how the demand curve for ignorance reads to social norm messages. We propose a simple behavioral model in which individuals suffer moral costs when behaving selfishly in the face of moral information. In several experiments, we find that moral ignorance de...
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作者：Penasse, Julien; Renneboog, Luc
作者单位：University of Luxembourg; Tilburg University
摘要：We argue that extrapolative expectations drive boom-bust cycles in the postwar art market. Price run-ups coincide with increases in demand fundamentals but are followed by predictable busts. Predictable changes account for about half of the variance of five-year price changes. High prices coincide with many attributes of speculative bubbles: trading volume, the share of short-term trades, the share of postwar art, and volatility are all higher during booms. In addition, short-term transactions...
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作者：Feng, Qi; Li, Chengzhang; Lu, Mengshi; Shanthikumar, J. George
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University
摘要：Involving suppliers deep in the supply chain is critical for the success of environmental and social responsibility (ESR) initiatives. Administering ESR programs throughout a complex supply network, however, is challenging. In this paper, we apply a multiunit bilateral bargaining framework to coordinate ESR investments in a general supply network and analyze to what extent an ESR initiator should directly engage the higher-tier suppliers as opposed to delegating that responsibility to the firs...
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作者：Jiang, Liangliang; Levine, Ross; Lin, Chen; Xie, Wensi
作者单位：Hong Kong Polytechnic University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Hong Kong; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：Does a bank's dependence on different external funding sources shape its voluntary disclosure of information? We evaluate whether economic shocks that increase the supply of bank deposits alter the cost-benefit calculations of bank managers concerning voluntary information disclosure. We measure information disclosure using 10-K filings, 8-K filings, and earnings guidance. As for the funding shock, we use unanticipated technological innovations that triggered shale development and booms in ban...
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作者：Agranov, Marina; Buyalskaya, Anastasia
作者单位：California Institute of Technology
摘要：Private and public organizations are interested in finding effective ways to reduce crime and promote ethical behavior without investing heavy resources into monitoring and compliance. In this paper, we experimentally study how revealing different information about a fine distribution affects deterrence of an undesirable behavior. We use a novel incentive-compatible elicitation method to observe subjects lying (the undesirable behavior) and quantify the extent to which this behavior responds t...
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作者：Zeng, Helen Shuxuan; Danaher, Brett; Smith, Michael D.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Chapman University System; Chapman University
摘要：In the two weeks after the U.S. Congress passed a package of anti-sex trafficking bills on March 21, 2018, two of the largest online commercial sex advertising platforms ceased operation. On March 23, Craigslist voluntarily removed their personals section, which had been dominated by advertisements for commercial sex. And on April 6, the Department of Justice seized Backpage.com, the largest online platform for commercial sex advertisements. Our research examines the impact of these shutdowns ...
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作者：Ashkanani, Ahmad M.; Dunford, Benjamin B.; Mumford, Kevin J.
作者单位：Kuwait University; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：We study the joint effects of motivation and workload on human servers' service time. Using operational and survey data from a call center with a pooled queue structure and limited financial incentives, we examine how individual differences between servers' trait intrinsic motivation (IM) and extrinsic motivation (EM) impact their average offline, online, and total service times in response to changing workloads. We find significant differences in the patterns of workload and service time rela...
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作者：Bleichrodt, Han; van Loon, Rogier J. D. Potter; Prelec, Drazen
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This paper introduces the index tau = ln beta/ln delta as a measure of time inconsistency and vulnerability to self-control problems in the quasi-hyperbolic, beta-delta (beta, delta) discounting model. We provide a preference foundation for tau and, consequently, a revealed preference definition of failed self-control. The tau index is independent of utility and has an intuitive interpretation as the maximum number of future selves who can disagree with the current self with respect to uniform...
