-
作者：Maafi, Hela
作者单位：heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; Paris School of Economics
摘要：Preference reversals have been widely studied using risky or riskless gambles. However, little is known about preference reversals under ambiguity (unknown probabilities). Subjects were asked to make a binary choice between ambiguous P-bets (big likelihood of giving small prize) and ambiguous $-bets (small likelihood of giving large prize) and their willingness to accept was elicited. Subjects then performed the same two tasks with risky bets, where the probability of winning for a given risky...
-
作者：Abdellaoui, Mohammed; L'Haridon, Olivier; Paraschiv, Corina
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Sorbonne Universite; Universite Paris Cite
摘要：This paper reports on the results of an experimental elicitation at the individual level of all prospect theory components (i.e., utility, loss aversion, and weighting functions) in two decision contexts: situations where alternatives are described as probability distributions and situations where the decision maker must experience unknown probability distributions through sampling before choice. For description-based decisions, our results are fully consistent with prospect theory's empirical...
-
作者：Jing, Bing
摘要：W hen learning of product characteristics takes some time, a firm introducing a new durable faces the trade-off between releasing early to an uninformed market and deferring release to a better-informed market. In a two-period monopoly, we examine the strategic interaction between exogenous learning (EL) and seller-induced learning (SIL) and the firm's product release and pricing strategies. The familiar, direct effect of strong learning is to facilitate a higher price for informed customers. ...
-
作者：Shen, Wenjing; Duenyas, Izak; Kapuscinski, Roman
作者单位：Drexel University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Two recent papers on managing new product diffusion decisions under production constraints reach somewhat contradictory conclusions. Ho et al. (Ho, T.-H., S. Savin, C. Terwiesch. 2002. Managing demand and sales dynamics in new product diffusion under supply constraint. Management Sci. 48(2) 187-206) show that it is never optimal to refuse to satisfy any customers when the firm has inventory of the product. On the other hand, in a very similar model, Kumar and Swaminathan (Kumar, S., J. M. Swam...
-
作者：Kraft, Holger; Munk, Claus
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Aarhus University; Aarhus University
摘要：W e derive explicit solutions to life-cycle utility maximization problems involving stock and bond investment, perishable consumption, and the rental and ownership of residential real estate. Prices of houses, stocks and bonds, and labor income are correlated. Because of a positive correlation between house prices and labor income, young individuals want little exposure to house price risk and tend to rent their home. Later in life the desired housing investment increases and will eventually r...
-
作者：Abdellaoui, Mohammed; Diecidue, Enrico; Oencueler, Ayse
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; INSEAD Business School; ESSEC Business School
摘要：Intertemporal decision making under risk involves two dimensions: time preferences and risk preferences. This paper focuses on the impact of time on risk preferences, independent of the intertemporal trade-off of outcomes, i.e., time preferences. It reports the results of an experimental study that examines how delayed resolution and payment of risky options influence individual choice. We used a simple experimental design based on the comparison of two-outcome monetary lotteries with the same...
-
作者：Bothner, Matthew S.; Podolny, Joel M.; Smith, Edward Bishop
作者单位：Cornell University; Apple Inc; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：What is the best way to design tournaments for status, in which individuals labor primarily for the esteem of their peers? What process, in other words, should organizers of status-based contests impose upon those who covet peer recognition? We propose a formal model of status-based competition that contrasts two competing alternatives. The first, following Merton, is the Matthew Effect, according to which a tournament's architect directs slack resources to elite actors and thus widens the dis...
-
作者：Brown, David B.; Smith, James E.
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：W e consider the problem of dynamic portfolio optimization in a discrete-time, finite-horizon setting. Our general model considers risk aversion, portfolio constraints (e. g., no short positions), return predictability, and transaction costs. This problem is naturally formulated as a stochastic dynamic program. Unfortunately, with nonzero transaction costs, the dimension of the state space is at least as large as the number of assets, and the problem is very difficult to solve with more than o...
-
作者：Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon; Llanes, Gaston
作者单位：Harvard University; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：W e study competitive interaction between a profit-maximizing firm that sells software and complementary services, and a free open-source competitor. We examine the firm's choice of business model between the proprietary model (where all software modules are proprietary), the open-source model (where all-modules are open source), and the mixed-source model (where some-but not all-modules are open). When a module is opened, users can access and improve the code, which increases quality and valu...
-
作者：Bloechlinger, Andreas; Leippold, Markus
作者单位：University of Zurich
摘要：We develop a new goodness-of-fit test for validating the performance of probability forecasts. Our test statistic is particularly powerful under sparseness and dependence in the observed data. To build our test statistic, we start from a formal definition of calibrated forecasts, which we operationalize by introducing two components. The first component tests the level of the estimated probabilities; the second validates the shape, measuring the differentiation between high and low probability...
