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作者：Taylor, James W.
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：A key input to the call center staffing process is a forecast for the number of calls arriving. Density forecasts of arrival rates are needed for analytical call center models, which assume Poisson arrivals with a stochastic arrival rate. Density forecasts of call volumes can be used in simulation models and are also important for the analysis of outsourcing contracts. A forecasting method, which has previously shown strong potential, is Holt-Winters exponential smoothing adapted for modeling ...
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作者：Brenner, Lyle A.; Griffin, Dale W.; Koehler, Derek J.
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; University of British Columbia; University of Waterloo
摘要：We integrate a case-based model of probability judgment with prospect theory to explore asset pricing under uncertainty. Research within the heuristics and biases tradition suggests that probability judgments respond primarily to case-specific evidence and disregard aggregate characteristics of the class to which the case belongs, resulting in predictable biases. The dual-system framework presented here distinguishes heuristic assessments of value and evidence strength from deliberative assess...
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作者：Jian, Lian; Sami, Rahul
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We conduct laboratory experiments on variants of market scoring rule prediction markets, under different information distribution patterns, to evaluate the efficiency and speed of information aggregation, as well as test recent theoretical results on manipulative behavior by traders. We find that markets structured to have a fixed sequence of trades exhibit greater accuracy of information aggregation than the typical form that has unstructured trade. In comparing two commonly used mechanisms, ...
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作者：Kozhan, Roman; Tham, Wing Wah
作者单位：University of Warwick; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：In this paper, we investigate the role of execution risk in high-frequency trading through arbitrage strategies. We show that if rational agents face uncertainty about completing their arbitrage portfolios, then arbitrage is limited even in markets with perfect substitutes and convertibility. Using a simple model, we demonstrate that this risk arises from the crowding effect of competing arbitrageurs entering the same trade and inflicting negative externalities on each other. Our empirical res...
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作者：Pancras, Joseph; Sriram, S.; Kumar, V.
作者单位：University of Connecticut; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：Managers of retail chains who seek to add new stores or close existing ones need to know the net impact of a store's opening/closure on the overall chain performance. This requires inferring the extent to which each store generates incremental sales as opposed to competing with other stores belonging to the chain for the same set of customers. However, when the chain is experiencing a growth or a decline in sales, not accounting for these dynamics in goodwill is likely to yield misleading esti...
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作者：Holderness, Clifford G.; Pontiff, Jeffrey
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：Using a comprehensive database of American prisoners of war during World War IT, we find that survival from captivity generally declines as the hierarchy of a prisoner's group becomes steeper or more closely matches the military's established hierarchy. There is no evidence that survival is enhanced by being held in more hierarchical groups. One interpretation of these findings that is consistent with survivors' accounts is that the military's hierarchy was too inflexible to adapt from the bat...
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作者：LiCalzi, Marco; Surucu, Oktay
作者单位：Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：We consider a team of agents with limited problem-solving ability facing a disjunctive task over a large solution space. We provide sufficient conditions for the following four statements. First, two heads are better than one: a team of two agents will solve the problem even if neither agent alone would be able to. Second, teaming up does not guarantee success: if the agents are not sufficiently creative, even a team of arbitrary size may fail to solve the problem. Third, defendit numerus: whe...
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作者：Jagannathan, Ravi; Marakani, Srikant; Takehara, Hitoshi; Wang, Yong
作者单位：Northwestern University; City University of Hong Kong; Waseda University; Hong Kong Polytechnic University
摘要：We show that when investors review their consumption and investment plans infrequently at different points in time with interim information flows, the standard consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) will continue to hold only at those points in time when all investors review their plans. Stylized facts suggest that the end of the tax year is a candidate for one such points in time. Therefore, we should expect more support for the CCAPM during the period surrounding the end of th...
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作者：Dargnies, Marie-Pierre
摘要：Recent results in experimental and personnel economics indicate that women do not like competitive environments as much as men. This paper presents an experimental design that gives participants the opportunity to enter a tournament as part of a team rather than alone. Although a large and significant gender gap in entry in the individual tournament is found, in line with the literature, no gender gap is found in entry in the team tournament. Women do not enter the tournament significantly mor...
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作者：Oraiopoulos, Nektarios; Ferguson, Mark E.; Toktay, L. Beril
作者单位：University of Cambridge; University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia; University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
摘要：Secondary markets in the information technology industry, where used or refurbished equipment is traded, have been growing steadily. For original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in this industry, the importance of secondary markets has grown in parallel, not only as a source of revenue, but also because of their impact on these firms' competitive advantage and market strategy. Recent articles in the press have severely criticized some OEMs who are perceived to be actively trying to eliminate th...
