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作者：Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr.
作者单位：University of Virginia; Georgetown University
摘要：Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about the challenges associated with aggregating such forecasts. We introduce a theoretical model to examine the combined effect of overfitting and overconfidence on the average forecast. Their combined effect is that the mean and media...
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作者：Baucells, Manel; Bellezza, Silvia
作者单位：University of Virginia; Columbia University
摘要：We propose the anticipation-event-recall (AER) model. Set in a continuous time frame, the AER model formally links the three components of total utility (i.e., utility from anticipation, event utility, and utility from recall). The AER model predicts the temporal profiles of instant utility experienced before, during, and after a given event. Total utility is calculated as the integral of instant utility. The model builds on the psychological elements of conceptual consumption, adaptation, and...
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作者：Egelman, Carolyn D.; Epple, Dennis; Argote, Linda; Fuchs, Erica R. H.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Extending research on organizational learning to multiproduct environments is of particular importance given that the vast majority of products are manufactured in such environments. We investigate learning in a multiproduct facility drawing on exceptionally rich data for a manufacturing firmthat is a leading producer of high-technology hardware components. Weekly data for 10 years from the firm's production and human resource tracking systems are augmented by surveys of managers and engineers...
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作者：Gao, Fei; Su, Xuanming
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Many retailers have recently started to offer customers the option to buy online and pick up in store (BOPS). We study the impact of the BOPS initiative on store operations. We build a stylized model where a retailer operates both online and offline channels. Customers strategically make channel choices. The BOPS option affects customer choice in two ways: by providing real-time information about inventory availability and by reducing the hassle cost of shopping. We obtain three findings. Firs...
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作者：Lejarraga, Tomas; Muller-Trede, Johannes
作者单位：Max Planck Society; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：How do teams make joint decisions under risk when some team members learn about a prospect from description and others learn from experience? In a series of experiments, we find that two-person teams composed of one participant who learns from description and a second participant who learns from experience arrive at shared decisions via mutual concessions. In doing so, they attenuate individual biases, such as the overweighting and underweighting of the probability of rare events. The social i...
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作者：Mamani, Hamed; Nassiri, Shima; Wagner, Michael R.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：We propose and analyze robust optimization models of an inventory management problem, where cumulative purchase, inventory, and shortage costs over n periods are minimized for correlated nonidentically distributed demand. We assume that the means and covariance matrix of stochastic demand are known; the distributions are not needed. We derive closed-form ordering quantities for both symmetric and asymmetric uncertainty sets, under capacitated inventory constraints, in both static and dynamic s...
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作者：Zhao, Xiaofei
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：This paper identifies an important source of variation in U.S. firms' material information flows: their Form 8-K filing frequency. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in this novel proxy for information intensity, this paper finds that firms with higher information intensity experience lower future returns and lower future volatilities. The marginal return impact is higher at low levels of information intensity and high levels of prior volatility. On average, an information-intensity-based lo...
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作者：Denrell, Jerker; Le Mens, Gael
作者单位：University of Warwick; Pompeu Fabra University; Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：We demonstrate that a sampling-based mechanism can offer an alternative explanation for belief synchronization in social groups and the persistence of collective illusions. Our model assumes that people are more likely to sample popular alternatives than unpopular alternatives. We show that this mechanism is sufficient to explain belief synchronization: a strong majority of opinions will likely emerge in favor of one alternative. The reason is that the group is unlikely to move away from a sta...
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作者：McNally, William J.; Shkilko, Andriy; Smith, Brian F.
作者单位：Wilfrid Laurier University
摘要：We examine trading activity around insider transactions on the Toronto Stock Exchange and find evidence that some traders mimic insider positions. Our unique data set allows us to establish a direct connection between insiders, their brokerages, and the brokerages' other clients. The findings are consistent with the possibility that some brokerages tip their clients about insider trades. Insiders in our sample have good timing; returns are usually positive (negative) after insider purchases (s...
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作者：Tian, Lin; Jiang, Baojun
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：Anand and Goyal [Anand KS, Goyal M (2009) Strategic information management under leakage in a supply chain. Management Sci. 55(3):438-452] propose a horizontal differentiation model to study information leakage and demand signaling in a supply chain. The authors present a composite equilibrium consisting of separating and pooling outcomes in different parameter regions and claim that it satisfies the intuitive criterion. We show that their analysis for the pooling equilibrium has errors and al...
