-
作者：Duernecker, Georg; Herrendorf, Berthold; Valentinyi, Akos
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Manchester; Corvinus University Budapest
摘要：In his seminal work, Baumol observed that developed economies suffer from cost disease, i.e., aggregate productivity growth falls because structural change reallocates production to services with low productivity growth. We document that cost disease importantly contributed to the productivity growth slowdown in the postwar U.S. To assess how severe cost disease may become, we build a model of structural change among the goods sector and broad services sectors. Calibrating the model to the pos...
-
作者：Mahajan, Parag
作者单位：University of Delaware
摘要：This paper studies the impact of immigration on U.S. local business dynamics using a comprehensive collection of survey and administrative data. It finds heterogeneous impacts across the employer productivity distribution that favor higher-productivity firms and lead to increases in average local earnings. Responses to immigration along the exit margin are particularly important. Immigrant inflows cull establishments from low-productivity firms while preserving establishments from high-product...
-
作者：Laurent-Lucchetti, Jeremy; Rohner, Dominic; Thoenig, Mathias
作者单位：University of Geneva; University of Lausanne; University of Oxford
摘要：Prevailing theories of democracy focus on class conflict. In contrast, we study democratic transition when ethnic tensions are more salient than the poor/rich divide, building a model where (i) ethnic groups negotiate about allocating the economic surplus and (ii) military and political mobilizations rest on the unobserved strength of ethnic attachment. Free and fair elections elicit information and restore inter-ethnic bargaining efficiency. Autocrats can rationally choose democratic transiti...
-
作者：Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production v...
-
作者：Ibanez, Ana Maria; Moya, Andres; Ortega, Maria Adelaida; Rozo, Sandra, V; Urbina, Maria Jose
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); University of California System; University of California Davis; The World Bank
摘要：We examine the well-being effects of a regularization program offered to half a million Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. We collected data on more than 2000 such migrants and compared the well-being of those who arrived in Colombia before and after the date that defined program eligibility. Since this date was announced ex-post and was unknown to the public, we could credibly evaluate the program's impact. We find that program beneficiaries experienced large improvements in well-being, ...
-
作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Sala, Luca
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of Turin; Collegio Carlo Alberto; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：An increase in uncertainty is not contractionary per se. What is contractionary is a widening of the left tail of the GDP growth forecast distribution, the downside uncertainty. On the contrary, an increase of the right tail, the upside uncertainty, is mildly expansionary. The reason why uncertainty shocks have been previously found to be contractionary is because movements in downside uncertainty dominate existing empirical measures of uncertainty. The results are obtained using a new econome...
-
作者：Illing, Hannah; Schmieder, Johannes; Trenkle, Simon
作者单位：University of Bonn; Boston University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We compare men and women who are displaced from similar jobs by applying an event study design combined with propensity score matching and reweighting to administrative data from Germany. After a mass layoff, women's earnings losses are about 35% higher than men's, with the gap persisting 5 years after displacement. This is partly explained by women taking up more part-time employment, but even women's full-time wage losses are almost 50% higher than men's. Parenthood magnifies the gender gap ...
-
作者：Dusek, Libor; Traxler, Christian
作者单位：Charles University Prague; Prague University of Economics & Business
-
作者：Hwang, Sung-Ha; Naidu, Suresh; Bowles, Samuel
作者单位：Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST); Columbia University; The Santa Fe Institute; University of Siena
摘要：We propose a theory of social norms (or conventions) that implement substantial levels of inequality between men and women, ethnic groups, and classes and that persist over long periods of time despite being inefficient and not supported by formal institutions. Consistent with historical cases, we extend the standard asymmetric stochastic evolutionary game model to allow subpopulation sizes to differ and idiosyncratic rejection of a status quo convention to be intentional to some degree (rathe...
-
作者：Bhattarai, Saroj; Kucheryavyy, Konstantin
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Tokyo
摘要：We present a unified framework to study interconnections between business cycle and international trade models. This unified framework is built upon the standard competitive, representative-firm international real business cycle model and features production externalities in the intermediate and final goods sectors. Our main theoretical result is that this unified framework is equivalent in aggregate implications to dynamic international trade models featuring monopolistic competition, endogen...
