Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad039
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 200-229
• 关键词: structural vector autoregressions; sign restrictions; identification; conclusions; demand; shocks; POLICY

摘要

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021-2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.