Tax multipliers: Pitfalls in measurement and identification

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Inter-American Development Bank
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.03.003
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 30-48
• 关键词: Tax multiplier; Fiscal shocks; identification; Narrative; Cyclically adjusted revenues

摘要

To analyze the pitfalls in measuring and identifying tax shocks, we build a novel value-added tax rate dataset for the period 1980-2009. The problem of identification (i.e., changes in tax policy not triggered by output fluctuations) is clearly disentangled from the problem of measurement (i.e., finding a tax policy variable under the direct control of policymakers). On the identification front, our results favor the use of narratives a la Romer and Romer (2010). On the measurement front, our findings support the use of tax rates as the true measure of tax policy as opposed to revenue-based measures, such as cyclically adjusted revenues. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.