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作者：Zarnowitz, Victor; Ozyildirim, Ataman
摘要：A study of business cycles does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles does. Major cyclical slowdowns and speedups deserve to be analyzed, but the needed time series decomposition presents difficult problems, mainly because trends and cycles influence each other. We compare cyclical movements in levels, deviations from trend, and smoothed growth rates for both the quarterly real GDP and the monthly U.S. Coincident Index-using the phase average trend (PAT). T...
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作者：Whitesell, William
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：This paper evaluates reserves regimes versus interest rate corridors, which have become competing frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Rate corridors, relying on lending and deposit facilities to create ceilings and floors for overnight interest rates, evince mixed results on controlling volatility. Reserve requirements allow period-average smoothing of interest rates but, even if remunerated, are subject to reserve avoidance activities. A system of voluntary, period-average reserve ...
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作者：Dollar, David; Kraay, Aart
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：China in the past few years has emerged as a net foreign creditor on the international scene with net foreign assets (NFAs) slightly greater than 0% of wealth. This is surprising given that China is a relatively poor country with a capital-labor ratio about one-fifth the world average and one-tenth the US level. We ask whether it makes economic sense for China to be a net creditor and what China's NFA position might be in 20 years. We calibrate a theoretical model of international capital flow...
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作者：Jensen, Mark J.; Liu, Ming
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper investigates how the occasional long swing in the business cycle can produce long-memory behaviour in US output. chain regime switching model of real aggregate output to include the occasional long regime. We do this by modeling the duration length of the expansion and recession regimes as draws from a fat-tailed distribution with realized durations that are high in variability and occasionally extreme in value. Empirically, we find that the tail indices for the length of US economi...
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作者：Ortigueira, Salvador
作者单位：European University Institute
摘要：The persistence of high-unemployment rates in Europe has fueled theories advocating the existence of multiple natural rates of unemployment. Labor-market institutions and increasing returns to scale have been singled out as the main causes of multiplicity and, therefore, of high-unemployment traps. The contribution of this paper is both to expand the set of mechanisms leading to multiple natural rates of unemployment and to establish a minimum set of assumptions under which such multiplicity m...
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作者：Amaral, Pedro S.; Quintin, Erwan
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：In developing nations, formal workers tend to be more experienced, more educated, and earn more than informal workers. These facts are often interpreted as evidence that low-skill workers face barriers to entry into the formal sector. Yet, there is little empirical evidence that such barriers are important. This paper describes a model where, in equilibrium, the characteristics of formal and informal workers differ systematically, even though labor markets are perfectly competitive. The inform...
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作者：Auguste, Sebastian; Dominguez, Kathryn M. E.; Kamil, Herman; Tesar, Linda L.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Cross-listed shares may confound government efforts to control capital outflows by providing a legal means through which investors can transfer their wealth outside the country. We study the recent experience of investors who while subject to capital controls, were able to purchase cross-listed shares using local currency, convert them into dollar-denominated shares, re-sell them abroad, and deposit the dollar proceeds in foreign bank accounts. Capital controls drive a wedge between the price ...
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作者：Iwata, Shigeru; Wu, Shu
作者单位：University of Kansas
摘要：Using a nonlinear structural VAR approach, we estimate the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks in the presence of a zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and examine the impact of such a constraint on the effectiveness of counter-cyclical monetary policies based on the data from Japan. We find that when interest rates are at zero, the output effect of exogenous shocks to monetary policy is cut in half if the central bank continues to target the interest rate. The condit...
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作者：Gorton, Gary; Huang, Lixin
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; City University of Hong Kong
摘要：Central banking is intimately related to liquidity provision to banks during times of crisis, the lender-of-last-resort function. This activity arose endogenously in certain banking systems. Depositors lack full information about the value of bank assets, so that during macroeconomic downturns they monitor their banks by withdrawing in a banking panic. The likelihood of panics depends on the industrial organization of the banking system. Banking systems with well-diversified big banks are less...
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作者：Guvenen, Fatih
作者单位：University of Rochester
摘要：In this paper we reconcile two opposing views about the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS). Empirical studies using aggregate consumption data typically find the EIS to be close to zero, whereas calibrated models designed to match growth and fluctuations facts typically require it to be close to one. This contradiction is resolved when two kinds of heterogeneity are acknowledged: one, the majority of households do not participate in stock markets; and two, the EIS increases with we...
