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作者：Harrison, Sharon G.; Weder, Mark
作者单位：Columbia University; Humboldt University of Berlin; Humboldt University of Berlin; University of Adelaide
摘要：We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model to the period of the U.S. Great Depression. In particular, we examine a modification of the real business cycle model in which the possibility of indeterminacy of equilibria arises. In other words, agents' self-fulfilling expectations can serve as a primary impulse behind fluctuations. We find that the model, driven only by these measured sunspot shocks, can explain well the entire Depression era. That is, the decline from 1929 to 1932, the subseque...
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作者：Brissimis, Sophocles N.; Magginas, Nicholas S.
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Greece; University of Piraeus; Athens University of Economics & Business
摘要：With a view to addressing the major disadvantage of the VAR model, namely the inadequate description of the central bank reaction function, we propose a VAR specification that proves successful in solving the price puzzle featuring in monetary VARs for the US. This specification consists in augmenting a standard VAR with two forward-looking variables: the federal funds futures rate (or alternatively a money market forward rate) reflecting monetary policy expectations and a composite leading in...
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作者：Tybout, James R.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Ferreira, RD; Dufourt, F
作者单位：Universites de Strasbourg Etablissements Associes; Universite de Strasbourg
摘要：We provide a business cycle model in which endogenous markup fluctuations are the main driving force. These fluctuations occur due to some form of 'animal spirits', impelling firms in their entry-exit decisions within each sector. By contrast to existing models of the business cycle emphasizing the role of animal spirits, we do not rely on the sink property of the equilibrium to generate indeterminacy. Hence, while our model does pretty well in accounting for the main features of US business c...
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作者：Huggett, M; Ventura, G; Yaron, A
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Earnings heterogeneity plays a crucial role in modern macroeconomics. We document that mean earnings and measures of earnings dispersion and skewness all increase in US data over most of the working life-cycle for a typical cohort as the cohort ages. We show that (i) a human capital model can replicate these properties from the right distribution of initial human capital and learning ability, (ii) differences in learning ability are essential to produce an increase in earnings dispersion over ...
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作者：Aksoy, Yunus; Orphanides, Athanasios; Small, David; Wieland, Volker; Wilcox, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of London; Birkbeck University London; Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Under a conventional policy rule, a central bank adjusts its policy rate linearly according to the gap between inflation and its target, and the gap between output and its potential. Under the opportunistic approach to disinflation a central bank controls inflation aggressively when inflation is far from its target, but concentrates more on output stabilization when inflation is close to its target, allowing supply shocks and unforeseen fluctuations in aggregate demand to move inflation within...
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作者：Smith, AA; Wang, C
作者单位：Yale University; Iowa State University
摘要：We construct a general equilibrium model with private information in which borrowers and lenders enter into long-term dynamic credit relationships. Each new generation of ex ante identical individuals is divided in equilibrium into workers and entrepreneurs. Workers save through financial intermediaries in the form of interest-bearing deposits and Supply labor to entrepreneurs in a competitive labor market. Entrepreneurs borrow from financial intermediaries to finance projects which produce pr...
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作者：Benigno, Gianluca; Benigno, Pierpaolo
作者单位：New York University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This study analyzes a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, monopolistic competition and producer currency pricing. A quadratic approximation to the utility of the consumers is derived and assumed as the policy objective function of the policymakers. It is shown that only under special conditions there are no gains from cooperation and moreover that the paths of the exchange rate and prices in the constrained-efficient solution depend on the kind of disturbance...
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作者：Lucas, D; McDonald, RL
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac assume a significant amount of interest and prepayment risk and all of the credit risk for about half of the $8 trillion U.S. residential mortgage market. Their hybrid government-private statLIS, and the perception that they are too big to fail, make them a potentially large, but largely Unaccounted For, risk to the federal government. Measuring the size and risk of this liability is technically difficult, but important for the debate over the appropriate regulation ...
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作者：Edelberg, Wendy
摘要：By focusing on observable default risk's role in loan terms and the subsequent consequences for household behavior, this paper shows that lenders increasingly used risk-based pricing of interest rates in consumer loan markets during the mid-1990s. It tests three resulting predictions: First, the premium paid per unit of risk should have increased over this period. Second, debt levels should have reacted accordingly. Third, fewer high-risk households should have been denied credit, further cont...
