Did sunspot forces cause the Great Depression?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Harrison, Sharon G.; Weder, Mark
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Humboldt University of Berlin; Humboldt University of Berlin; University of Adelaide
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.07.018
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 1327-1339
• 关键词: Great depression; sunspots; Dynamic general equilibrium

摘要

We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model to the period of the U.S. Great Depression. In particular, we examine a modification of the real business cycle model in which the possibility of indeterminacy of equilibria arises. In other words, agents' self-fulfilling expectations can serve as a primary impulse behind fluctuations. We find that the model, driven only by these measured sunspot shocks, can explain well the entire Depression era. That is, the decline from 1929 to 1932, the subsequent slow recovery, and the recession that occurred in 1937-1938. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.