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作者：Faia, Ester
作者单位：University of Rome Tor Vergata
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作者：Sveen, Tommy; Weinke, Lutz
作者单位：Norges Bank; Duke University
摘要：We find that demand shocks play an important role for business-cycle fluctuations ill unemployment and job vacancies. The reason is that those shocks give a strong incentive to demand-constrained firms to adjust production and thereby labor input. Furthermore we argue that whether real wage rigidity A la Hall [2005. Employment fluctuations With equilibrium wage stickiness. American Economic Review 95, 50-65] helps explain the remaining part of the unemployment volatility Puzzle depends critica...
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作者：Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：The optimal control approach to monetary policy has garnered increased attention in recent years. Optimal control policies, however, are designed for the specific features of a particular model and therefore may not be robust to model misspecification. One important source of potential misspecification is how agents form expectations. Specifically, whether they know the complete structure of the model as assumed in rational expectations or learn using a forecasting model that they update based...
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作者：Siu, Henry E.
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：An often overlooked role of conscription is as a method of lump sum taxation in times of War. Conscription of military personnel allows the fiscal authority to minimize wartime government expenditure, and hence, minimize tax distortions associated with war finance. This paper presents a simple dynamic general equilibrium model to articulate this view, and calibrates the model to the U.S. World War II experience. Analysis of the calibrated model indicates that the welfare value of conscription ...
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作者：Antinolfi, Gaetano; Prasad, Suraj
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We examine how banks and financial markets interact with one another to provide liquidity to investors. The critical assumption is that financial markets are characterized by limited enforcement of contracts, and in the event of default only a fraction of borrowers' assets can be seized. Limited enforcement reduces the fraction of assets that can be used as collateral and thus individuals subject to liquidity shocks face borrowing constraints. We show how banks endogenously overcome these borr...
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作者：Beck, Guenter W.; Wieland, Volker
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Research with Keynesian-style models has emphasized the importance of the output gap for policies aimed at controlling inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross-check for monetary policy. We identify an important Source of monetary trends in form of persistent central bank misperceptions regar...
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作者：Krusell, Per; Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Rogerson, Richard; Sahin, Ayseguel
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Virginia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We study the impact of tax and transfer programs on steady-state allocations in a model with search frictions, an operative labor supply margin, and incomplete markets. In a benchmark model that has indivisible labor and incomplete markets but no trading frictions we show that the aggregate effects of taxes are identical to those in the economy with employment lotteries, though individual employment and asset dynamics can be different. The effect of frictions oil the response of aggregate hour...
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作者：Piazzesi, Monika; Swanson, Eric T.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Many researchers have used federal funds futures rates as measures of financial markets' expectations of future monetary policy. However, to the extent that federal funds futures reflect risk premia, these measures require some adjustment. In this paper, we document that excess returns on federal funds futures have been positive on average and strongly countercyclical. In parti cular, excess returns are surprisingly well predicted by macroeconomic indicators such as employment growth and finan...
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作者：Thapar, Aditi
作者单位：New York University
摘要：I develop a methodology that uses the forecasts of market participants and of policy makers to estimate the effects of monetary policy on output and inflation. My approach has advantages over the standard practice of fitting a vector autoregression to the data. I apply my methodology to data on output, interest rates and prices. I find that, even using the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook forecasts to control for the policy maker's information set, prices rise initially in response to a monet...
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作者：Gollin, Douglas
作者单位：Williams College
摘要：In most poor countries, small firms and self-employment are the dominant forms of business enterprise-even in the manufacturing sector. For rich countries, in contrast, self-employed people account for very small shares of manufacturing employment and output. This paper builds on Lucas [1978. On the size distribution of business firms. Bell Journal of Economics 9(2), 508-523] to ask whether structural changes of this kind are driven by productivity differences. A model, calibrated to Japanese ...
