Central bank misperceptions and the role of money in interest-rate rules

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Beck, Guenter W.; Wieland, Volker
• 署名单位: Goethe University Frankfurt
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.07.006
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: S1-S17
• 关键词: Taylor rules; money; quantity theory; Output gap uncertainty; Monetary policy under uncertainty

摘要

Research with Keynesian-style models has emphasized the importance of the output gap for policies aimed at controlling inflation while declaring monetary aggregates largely irrelevant. Critics, however, have argued that these models need to be modified to account for observed money growth and inflation trends, and that monetary trends may serve as a useful cross-check for monetary policy. We identify an important Source of monetary trends in form of persistent central bank misperceptions regarding potential output. Simulations with historical output gap estimates indicate that such misperceptions may induce persistent errors in monetary policy and sustained trends in money growth and inflation. If interest-rate prescriptions derived from Keynesian-style models are augmented with a cross-check against money-based estimates of trend inflation, inflation control is improved substantially. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.