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作者:Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Swanson, Eric T.
作者单位:Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要:The basic inability of standard theoretical models to generate a sufficiently large and variable nominal bond risk premium has been termed the bond premium puzzle. We show that the term premium on long-term bonds in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in macroeconomics is far too small and stable relative to the data. We find that introducing long-memory habits in consumption as well as labor market frictions can help fit the term premium, but only by serious...
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作者:Rotemberg, Julio J.
作者单位:Harvard University
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作者:Athreya, Kartik B.
作者单位:Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要:The widespread use of debt and default suggests that unsecured credit markets play an important role in consumption smoothing. In this paper, I address two previously unanswered questions. First, how does policy towards debt default affect the evolution of consumption and net worth over the life-cycle? Second, how does debt default policy interact with social insurance over the life-cycle? The findings are as follows. First, US default policy appears lax, in the sense that it creates severe cr...
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作者:Nelson, Edward; Schwartz, Anna J.
作者单位:Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要:We provide a brief rejoinder to Krugman [2008, Response to Nelson and Schwartz journal. of Monetary Economics 55, this issue] on three issues that are central to his original New York Review ofBooks article and his reply to our setting the record straight: (i) criticisms of Friedman; (ii) criticisms of monetarism; and (iii) interpretations of histor y. (c) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.
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作者:Jaimovich, Nir; Floetotto, Max
作者单位:Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要:We present a model in which net business formation is endogenously procyclical. Variations in the number of operating firms lead to countercyclical variations in markups that give rise to endogenous procyclical movements in measured total factor productivity (TFP). Based oil this result, the paper suggests a simple structural decomposition of variations in TFP into those originating from exogenous shocks and those originating endogenously from the interaction between firms' entry and exit deci...
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作者:Nelson, Edward; Schwartz, Anna J.
作者单位:Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要:Paul Krugman's essay Who Was Milton Friedman? seriously mischaracterizes Friedman's economics and his legacy. In this paper, we provide a rejoinder to Krugman on these issues. In the course of setting the record straight, we provide a self-contained guide to Milton Friedman's impact on modern monetary economics and on today's central banks. We also refute the conclusions that Krugman draws about monetary policy from the experiences of the United States in the 1930s and of Japan in the 1990s. (...
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作者:Antinolfi, Gaetano; Kawamura, Enrique
作者单位:Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要:Modern financial sectors consist of banks, asset markets and a central bank. This paper builds a model where these institutions provide different financial services, and their interaction supports efficient allocations. When one institution is missing equilibria are, by construction, inefficient. The paper analyzes how interest rates and asset prices depend on the structure of the financial sector and characterizes the central bank policy that supports efficient allocations. The analysis relie...
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作者:Whelan, Karl
作者单位:University College Dublin
摘要:If asset returns are predictable, then rational expectations and the arithmetic of budget constraints together imply that these predictable changes in returns should affect current consumption. This paper presents a new framework linking consumption, income, and observable assets to expectations of future asset returns. Relative to previous work on this topic, the framework proposed in this paper has a number of advantages including not relying on untestable assumptions concerning unobservable...
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作者:Hall, Robert E.
作者单位:Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
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作者:Rupert, Peter
作者单位:University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara