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作者：Monacelli, Tommaso; Perotti, Roberto; Trigari, Antonella
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：We estimate the effects of fiscal policy on the labor market in US data. An increase in government spending of 1 percent of GDP generates output and unemployment multipliers, respectively, of about 1.2 percent (at one year) and 0.6 percentage points (at the peak). Each percentage point increase in GDP produces an increase in employment of about 1.3 million jobs. Total hours, employment and the job finding probability all rise, whereas the separation rate falls. A standard neoclassical model au...
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作者：Dong, Mei; Jiang, Janet Hua
作者单位：University of Manitoba
摘要：The set of incentive-feasible allocations is examined in a dynamic quasi-linear environment where agents lack commitment and have private information over their idiosyncratic characteristics. When record-keeping is available, the first-best allocation is implementable in a set of sufficiently patient economies. When record-keeping is limited to one money, this set is strictly smaller except when private information is absent. When record-keeping is expanded, but limited to two monies, the set ...
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作者：Bekaert, Geert; Engstrom, Eric
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The so-called Fed model postulates that the dividend or earnings yield on stocks should equal the yield on nominal Treasury bonds, or at least that the two should be highly correlated. In US data there is indeed a strikingly high time series correlation between the yield on nominal bonds and the dividend yield on equities. This positive correlation is often attributed to the fact that both bond and equity yields comove strongly and positively with expected inflation. Contrary to some of the ex...
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作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Autonomous University of Barcelona
摘要：A structural factor model for 112 US monthly macroeconomic series is used to study the effects of monetary policy. Monetary policy shocks are identified using a standard recursive scheme, in which the impact effects on both industrial production and prices are zero. The main findings are the following. First, the maximal effect oil bilateral real exchange rates is observed on impact, so that the delayed overshooting puzzle disappears. Second, after a contractionary shock prices fall at all hor...
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作者：Alonso-Ortiz, Jorge; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：The consequences of increases in the scale of tax and transfer programs are assessed in the context of a model with idiosyncratic productivity shocks and incomplete markets The effects are contrasted with those obtained in a stand-in household model featuring no idiosyncratic shocks and complete markets The main finding is that the impact on hours remains very large but the welfare consequences are very different The analysis also suggests that tax and transfer policies have large effects on a...
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作者：Karnizova, Lilia
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：While news shocks are believed to be instrumental in explaining business cycles, many existing models fail to predict a boom in consumption, investment, employment, output and asset prices in response to good news about future productivity. A model with the intrinsic desire for wealth is shown to generate the aforementioned responses. A news-driven boom is explained predominantly by an expansion of labor supply and is characterized by the falling real wage. The simulated model not only capture...
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作者：Kuester, Keith
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Frictional unemployment means that workers, for some time, are a firm-specific factor of production. This paper models the resulting interaction of wage bargaining and price setting at the firm level in a New Keynesian model with labor market matching frictions. Real rigidities arise and the labor share ceases to be a good proxy for marginal costs. The model replicates the impulse responses of an SVAR for U.S. data better than alternatives in which the real rigidities arising at the firm level...
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作者：Heaton, John C.; Lucas, Deborah; McDonald, Robert L.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Northwestern University
摘要：Fundamental economic principles provide a rationale for requiring financial institutions to use mark-to-market, or fair value, accounting for financial reporting. The recent turmoil in financial markets, however, has raised questions about whether fair value accounting is exacerbating the problems. In this paper, we review the history and practice of fair value accounting, and summarize the literature on the channels through which it can adversely affect the real economy. We propose a new mode...
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作者：Singh, Aarti
作者单位：University of Sydney
摘要：The aggregate effects of market incompleteness are studied in a model where agents face idiosyncratic, uninsurable human capital investment risk. Using a life-cycle model with a version of a Ben-Porath (1967) human capital accumulation technology, stationary equilibria of calibrated cases are analyzed in which risk arises from specialization risk and career risk. With career risk only, stationary equilibria resemble those studied by Aiyagari (1994), and the impact of uninsurable idiosyncratic ...
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作者：Davig, Troy; Leeper, Eric M.; Walker, Todd B.
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A rational expectations framework is developed to study the consequences of alternative means to resolve the unfunded liabilities problem-unsustainable exponential growth in federal Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending with no plan to finance it. Resolution requires specifying a probability distribution for how and when monetary and fiscal policies will change as the economy evolves through the 21st century. Beliefs based on that distribution determine the existence of and the natu...
