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作者：Danthine, Jean-Pierre; Kurmann, Andre
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：A reciprocity-based model of wage determination is incorporated into a modern dynamic general equilibrium framework and estimated on U.S. data. The estimation reveals that rent-sharing (between workers and firms) and wage entitlement (based on past wages) are important determinants of wage setting for the model to fit the dynamic responses of output, wages and inflation to various exogenous shocks. Aggregate employment conditions (measuring workers' outside option), on the other hand, are foun...
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作者：King, Robert G.
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作者：Aghion, Philippe; Angeletos, George-Marios; Banerjee, Abhijit; Manova, Kalina
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：How does uncertainty and credit constraints affect the cyclical composition of investment and thereby volatility and growth? This paper addresses this question within a model where firms engage in two types of investment: a short-term one; and a long-term one, which contributes more to productivity growth. Because it takes longer to complete, long-term investment has a relatively less cyclical return; but it also has a higher liquidity risk. The first effect ensures that the share of long-term...
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作者：Patton, Andrew J.; Timmermann, Allan
作者单位：Duke University; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Key sources of disagreement among economic forecasters are identified by using data on cross-sectional dispersion in forecasters' long- and short-run predictions of macroeconomic variables. Dispersion among forecasters is highest at long horizons where private information is of limited value and lower at short forecast horizons. Moreover, differences in views persist through time. Such differences in opinion cannot be explained by differences in information sets; our results indicate they stem...
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作者：Dennis, Richard
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：The monetary policy literature assumes increasingly that policy is formulated according to the timeless perspective (Woodford, 1999a). However, by treating appropriately the auxiliary state variables that characterize the timeless perspective equilibrium when evaluating policy performance, this paper shows that discretionary policymaking can be superior to timeless perspective policymaking and identifies model features that make this outcome more likely. Using standard New Keynesian DSGE model...
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作者：Belo, Frederico
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：A stochastic discount factor for asset returns is recovered from equilibrium marginal rates of transformation inferred from producers' first-order conditions. The marginal rate of transformation implies a novel macro-factor asset pricing model that does a reasonable job explaining the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns with plausible parameter Values. Using a flexible representation of firms' production technology, producers' ability to transform output across states of nature ...
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作者：Farmer, Roger E. A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This paper uses a model with a continuum of equilibrium steady state unemployment rates to explore the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The existence of multiple steady state equilibria is explained by the presence of search and recruiting costs. I use the model to explain the current financial crisis as a shift to a high unemployment equilibrium, induced by the self-fulfilling beliefs of market participants about asset prices. I ask two questions. (1) Can fiscal policy help us out of the crisi...
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作者：Merz, Monika
作者单位：University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
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作者：Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：A productivity innovation reduces labor share at impact making it countercyclical it subsequently produces a long-lasting increase that peaks five years later at a level larger in absolute terms than the initial drop before slowly returning to average i e labor share overshoots We estimate a bivariate shock process to the production function that under competition in factor markets accounts for this overshooting We pose this process in an otherwise standard real business cycle economy and we f...
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作者：Blinder, Alan S.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：The Squam Lake Report is a volume by economists for economists. It offers the fruits of the labors of 15 top economists who met at Squam Lake, New Hampshire, to discuss financial reform. While somewhat disjointed, and avoiding many important issues, the book is nonetheless a tour du force. Its many recommendations derive from two basic principles: that reformers need to think systemically, and that third-party costs stemming from systemic risk need to be internalized. And its approach is just ...
