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作者：Mei, Yuan
作者单位：Singapore Management University
摘要：How does the presence of multilateral institutions affect the sustainability of trade-policy cooperation? Do free-trade agreements make multilateral cooperation less sustainable? Will countries be more likely to deviate from negotiated tariffs when more trade liberalization realizes in the future? These questions have been studied in theory literature using models that feature repeated games, but have yet to be quantitatively analyzed. In this paper, I propose a methodology to quantitatively c...
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作者：Ma, Chang
作者单位：Fudan University
摘要：This paper studies the effect of optimal macroprudential policy in a small open economy model where growth is endogenous. By introducing endogenous growth, this model is able to capture the persistent effect of financial crises on output, which is different from previous literature but consistent with the data. Furthermore, there is a new policy trade-off between cyclical and trend consumption growth. In a calibrated version of the baseline model, I find that the impact of the optimal macropru...
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作者：Celik, Levent; Karabay, Bilgehan; McLaren, John
作者单位：City St Georges, University of London; Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT); University of Virginia; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：Under Fast-Track Authority (FT), the US Congress commits to an up-or-down vote without amendments for any trade agreement presented for ratification. We interpret FT in terms of a hold-up problem. If the US negotiates an agreement with a smaller economy, businesses there may make sunk investments for the US market. At the ratification stage, the partner economy will be locked in to the US in a way it was not previously and Congress can make changes adverse to the partner, so to convince the pa...
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作者：de Ferra, Sergio; Mitman, Kurt; Romei, Federica
作者单位：Stockholm University; Stockholm University; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：We study the role of heterogeneity in the transmission of foreign shocks. We build a Heterogeneous-Agent New-Keynesian Small Open Model Economy (HANKSOME) that experiences a current account reversal. Households' portfolio composition and the extent of foreign currency borrowing are key determinants of the magnitude of the contraction in consumption associated with a sudden stop in capital inflows. The contraction is more severe when households are leveraged and owe debt in foreign currency. In...
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作者：Sun, Chang
作者单位：University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper develops a quantitative model of multinational production (MP) with non-neutral technologies incorporating two stylized facts observed in a global firm-level data: first, larger firms on average use more capital-intensive technologies; second, among firms producing in the same industry and country, those from more capital-abundant home countries use more capital-intensive technologies. I quantify the model using both firm-level and aggregate moments for 37 countries. I found that th...
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作者：Boehm, Christoph E.; Flaaen, Aaron; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We provide new facts about the role of multinationals in the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment between 1993 and 2011, using a novel microdata panel with firm-level ownership and trade information. Multinational-owned establishments displayed lower employment growth than a narrow control group and accounted for 41% of the aggregate decline. Newly multinational establishments experienced job losses, while their parent firms increased foreign input imports. We develop a model that rational...
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作者：Amiti, Mary; Dai, Mi; Feenstra, Robert C.; Romalis, John
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Beijing Normal University; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Sydney
摘要：We analyze the effects of China's rapid export expansion following its WTO entry on the US. prices of manufacturing goods between 2000 and 2006, exploiting cross-industry variation in trade liberalization. Lower input tariffs in China lowered costs and, in conjunction with reduced US. tariff uncertainty, expanded China's export participation. WTO entry therefore led to lower effective prices for Chinese exports, and we find a substantial reduction in the prices of other countries selling to th...
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作者：Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Ishikawa, Jota; Tarui, Nori
作者单位：Hitotsubashi University; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa
摘要：In international trade, transportation requires a round trip for which a transport firm has to commit to shipping capacity that is sufficient to meet the maximum shipping volume. This may cause the backhaul problem. Trade theory suggests that, facing the problem, transport firms with market power adjust their freight rates strategically when import tariffs change. As a consequence, a country reducing its import tariffs may experience an increase in exports as well as imports. Using worldwide d...
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作者：Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo; Tenorio, Gabriel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We document the relevance of external risks-shocks to the level and volatility of world interest rates-in shaping economic activity in emerging market economies (EMEs) and characterize optimal macroprudential policy in response to these risks in a small open economy subject to financial crises. Low and stable interest rates reinforce overborrowing arising from a pecuniary externality generated by collateral constraints that depend on asset prices. We show that this mechanism leads to greater e...
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作者：Mihalache, Gabriel
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University
摘要：Sovereign default episodes are resolved by restructuring the debt through renegotiations and implemented by bond swaps and resumption of debt service payments. This process provides debt relief for the sovereign and partially compensates lenders for their losses. In the data, the bulk of such debt relief is implemented by extending thematurity of the debt rather than changing its face value. We augment a standardmaturity choicemodel with a post-default renegotiation phase and study whether it ...
