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作者：Bagwell, K; Staiger, RW
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the implications of customs-union formation for multilateral tariff cooperation. We model cooperation in multilateral trade policy as self-enforcing, in that it involves balancing the current gains from deviating unilaterally from an agreed-upon trade policy against the future losses from forfeiting the benefits of multilateral cooperation that such a unilateral defection would imply. The early stages of the process of customs-union formation are shown to alter this dynamic incentive ...
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作者：Baillie, RT; Osterberg, WP
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：A two country inter-temporal asset pricing model is developed which implies that central bank foreign exchange intervention affects the forward exchange risk premium. The model is estimated from daily foreign exchange intervention data for the US, German and Japanese central banks. Considerable empirical support is found for the theoretical model with intervention influencing the risk premium in the forward market. Purchases of dollars by the Federal Reserve Bank are found to be associated wit...
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作者：Lockwood, B
作者单位：University of Exeter; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper investigates whether it is possible to find Pareto-improving commodity tax reforms that harmonise taxes between two countries when governments supply public goods and thus have revenue requirements. We consider a Ricardian model of trade with elastic factor supply, and suppose that initial taxes are Nash equilibrium ones. Under weak conditions, a necessary and sufficient condition for a tax reform to be Pareto improving is that it increases the value of compensated (utility constant...
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作者：Blomberg, SB; Hess, GD
作者单位：University of Cambridge
摘要：Standard exchange rate models perform poorly in out-of-sample forecasting when compared to the random walk model. We posit part of the poor performance of these models may be due to omission of political factors. We test this hypothesis by including political variables that capture party-specific, election-specific and candidate-specific characteristics. Surprisingly, we find our political model outperforms the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting at 1-12 month horizons for the pound/dolla...
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作者：Jeanne, O
摘要：This paper studies the respective roles of the fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in currency crises. We first present a model of a fixed exchange rate system in which self-fulfilling speculation can arise following a bifurcation in the fundamentals. We then estimate the model in the case of the 1992-3 crisis of the French franc, and find some evidence that self-fulfilling speculation was at work.
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作者：Riezman, R; Wilson, JD
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Iowa
摘要：The welfare effects of partial restrictions on political competition are investigated in a model in which two candidates receive campaign contributions from import-competing industries in return for tariff protection. Ceilings on allowable contributions per industry may be welfare-worsening, particularly if the ''contributor elasticity'' is high, because they induce candidates to seek additional contributors. Restrictions that reduce the number of industries allowed to contribute may also wors...
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作者：Anderson, PM
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Daniel, BC
摘要：The neoclassical representative agent model attributes persistent current account imbalance to differences in time preference rates. Exogenous time preference yields corner solutions in which one country owns the world's wealth. With endogenous time preference, corners are avoided, but at the cost of the intuitively unappealing assumption that wealthier agents are more impatient. This paper shows that an agent, with constant relative risk aversion utility, subject to stochastic income shocks, ...
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作者：Huizinga, H; Nielsen, SB
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; Tilburg University
摘要：This paper establishes optimal rules for capital income and profits taxation in the open economy with or without foreign ownership of domestic firms. We show that if there are constraints on the feasibility of profits taxation, both saving and investment taxes generally enter the optimal tax package. If instead profits can be fully taxed, then source-based investment taxes vanish. If domestic firms are in part owned by foreigners, then source-based investment taxes can be used to shift income ...
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作者：Puga, D; Venables, AJ
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper considers the locational effects of geographically discriminatory trade policy. A preferential move towards a free trade area pulls industry into the integrating countries. Input-output links between imperfectly competitive firms amplify this effect and, when trade barriers fall below some critical level, may lead to agglomeration with some member countries gaining industry at the expense of others. A hub-and-spoke arrangement favours location in the hub, with better reciprocal acce...
