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作者：Obstfeld, M
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper studies policy rules with escape clauses, analyzing as an example fixed exchange rate systems that allow member countries the freedom to realign in periods of stress. While well-designed, escape-clause rules can raise society's welfare in principle, limited credibility makes it difficult to implement such rules in practice. An EMS-type institution that imposes political costs on policymakers who realign may raise welfare, but can also produce equilibria far inferior to an irrevocabl...
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作者：Lane, PR
摘要：This paper relates the time-consistent inflation rate to the degree of trade openness of an economy. The mechanism linking the welfare effects of monetary surprises (and hence the incentives to inflate) to openness does not rely on a large-country terms of trade effect but rather is due to imperfect competition and nominal price rigidity in the non-traded sector. The empirical evidence supports the main predictions of the model. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.
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作者：Hoff, K
摘要：Most analyses of the infant industry argument assume that production early on benefits subsequent production in deterministic fashion. This paper presents an alternative framework for evaluating the infant industry argument that focuses on imperfect information as a barrier to entry. Initial entrants provide information of social value by reducing uncertainty for potential followers about the suitability of local conditions. In contrast to earlier work, I show that factors that increase the in...
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作者：Mark, NC; Choi, DY
摘要：In studying monthly real exchange rates between the US and Britain, Canada, Germany, and Japan from 1961 to 1993, we find that the deviation of the log real exchange rate from its time-varying, long-run equilibrium value contains a statistically significant predictable component at the four-year horizon over a forecast period extending from 1985 to 1993. Fixed-effects regressions employing differentials in productivity, real interest rates, and per capita income display some predictive power b...
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作者：VanLong, N; Soubeyran, A
作者单位：McGill University; Aix-Marseille Universite
摘要：We show that if domestic firms do not have identical unit costs, then the interplay between the Herfindahl index of concentration and the elasticity of the slope of the demand curve is of major importance in the determination of optimal trade policies. In some cases, the direction of optimal policy is reversed.
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作者：Goldberg, LS
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Easterly, W; Loayza, N; Montiel, P
作者单位：The World Bank; Williams College
摘要：After years of poor macroeconomic performance, many Latin American countries undertook ambitious programs of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform during recent years. The change in policy created high expectations for the region. Some observers question, however, whether actual growth outcomes in several Latin American countries have measured up to such expectations. This paper offers some evidence that the response of economic growth to reforms in Latin America has not been disap...
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作者：Stein, E
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作者：Bhagwati, J
摘要：The proliferation of Preferential Trading Arrangements, especially of Free Trade Areas, has been characteristic of recent trade liberalization. In turn, many are based on the defining critereon of member countries sharing common waters: oceans, in particular, and now seas. It is suggested playfully that this 'watering of trade' also shows the superiority of multilateral over preferential freeing of trade because the WTO would be host to the 'largest water of all'.
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作者：Desai, P
