作者：University of Warwick; Loughborough University
摘要：We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and defense news. We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have had a larger impact than a temporary public works ...
作者：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Binghamton University, SUNY; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Most American financial crises of the postbellum gold standard era were caused by fluctuations in the cotton harvest due to exogenous factors such as weather. The transmission channel ran through export revenues and financial markets under the pre-1914 monetary regime. A poor cotton harvest depressed export revenues and reduced international demand for American assets, which depressed American stock prices, drained deposits from money center banks and precipitated a business cycle downturn-con...
作者：University of California System; University of California Davis
